New Economy Handbook: Hall and Khan
Adoption of New Technology
...The contribution of new technology to economic growth can only be realized when and if the new technology is widely diffused and used. Diffusion itself results from a series of individual decisions to begin using the new technology, decisions which are often the result of a comparison of the uncertain benefits of the new invention with the uncertain costs of adopting it. An understanding of the factors affecting this choice is essential both for economists studying the determinants of growth and for the creators and producers of such technologies
...Rosenberg said in 1972,
“in the history of diffusion of many innovations, one cannot help being struck by two characteristics of the diffusion process: its apparent overall slowness on the one hand, and the wide variations in the rates of acceptance of different inventions, on the other.”
Thus understanding the workings of the diffusion process is essential to understanding how technological change actually comes about and why it may be slow at times.
An interesting paper that helps the investor understand the long years getting where CPST is today and the path ahead. Capstone is slowly growing towards a second shift. Would be an interesting question for management, when do they see a possible ramp to a second shift.
capstone would have to hire and train on the day shift for 6 months to a year--or--ask experienced people from days to work second and hire trainees to fill their places on days.--It would likely start with about 5 people on one product line.---not much of a 'shift' but would be a start.
. And although Capstone's backlog had risen to a record $155.8 million at the end of Q1, and was $6.9 million greater than the fiscal year end backlog of $148.9 million, if we adjust for the $8 million of product that did not ship, the backlog would have declined.
It is not just the revenue growth that appears to be weak, but the backlog isn't growing much either.
Capstone still has the potential to continue growing revenue and eventually become profitable, but that eventuality now appears to have been pushed just a bit further out into the future. For that reason, I will sell the recent purchases made in anticipation of a stronger second quarter, will continue to hold onto a position I have had for more than five years and look for a more attractive re-entry point.
I hold no position in Carrier and plan on reducing my holdings of Capstone
I like how you completely disregard the fact they announced more than 34 MW of new orders in the first two weeks of the current quarter. Perhaps you're comfortable assuming they'll just close up shop and rest on their laurels for the next 10 weeks but I have a hunch they'll probably keep on keeping on.