just a guess of course...... the market trends and most $ are made by the big boys,.....when uncertainty happens, a trend or trading range is broken to the upside or the downside.....
because of all the techies out there as well as shorts, this makes perfect since.......introduce uncertainty to preictable trading patterns...
you have to keep things guessing on the big moves, so folks drop off early and then chase on moves up, or sell off late, or buy in at support points only to see further drops..
i think there was a lot of big shakes in the energy and oil sectors the last 6 months & things have settled into a fairly "predictable" trading range.
where now we are supposed to sell our energy and oils and buy back later as it moves back down....... i just see this as too predictable now, and since we have had crushing moves to the downside in this sector recently, i think that adds to short confidence to sell here and therefore more selling off... that makes it ripe for a spike upward as this predictablity gets broken, and a hype can start.
just an observation and an instinct for what it is worth. that is why i am looking for stocks like royl that have missed this last run up for teh most part, as their dwonside risk is less, and if i am right, the pop up will be all the bigger, because it will need to catch the rest of the sectors performance, and then get the further boost higher.
i look for one more half hearted, low volume dip, in normal trading ranges before a larger shot up.
Uinta Basin drilling is Royale's best prospect for going higher. It already has a producing well in a proven area, and is ready to drill more wells in the surrounding area. Berry Pet. recently made a big hit in Uinta, and Enogex is increasing its pipeline to gather gas there. There is a lot of interest in Utah as a potential big hit area given improved seismic methods. ROYL could add production there very fast if it can get the rigs, and it could make substantial additions to proved reserves.
The 1/24 Commitment of traders report shows Commercials evenly split between long and short positions, but Speculators short by over 2:1. NG contracts were up $.44 late today, so we are getting into the area where prices could get a big boost from short covering in the futures pits. That will only help ROYL if they can get more gas out of the ground and into the terminals.
ROYL stock is really very difficult to predict, impossible as all cos. are, I suppose. One has to be extremely patient with this one as there is usually little, if any news during the quarter and the share price trades in such a small range for such a long time that most people get bored and move on to something more excit- ing and then WHAM! ROYL jumps $3 or more ( $12 in one week in 2000) and everyone wonders " What Happened ? ) It's a lot like fishing all day long without a bite and then about sundown a 10lb.bass hits your line and you're not ready!