Those who will know best are on the inside. I watch the insider transactions--management knows a good deal when they see it and everyone likes a little insider edge. If management is willing to throw a few million at their own company that makes me feel better. On the other hand, if they're selling everything they can that's not the kind of tell I want to go against.
You clearly don't understand stock options. It is just a game. The officer is awarded options, the stock goes up, the officer exercises the options, sells the stock and makes a lot of money. It is called stock-based compensation. Very few executives have the balls to put 95% of their net worth in one stock, even if they believe in its future. They have everything riding on this one stock as it is without tying up millions of bucks in the stock. Besides, they keep getting more stock options which they will cash in down the road. There is no need to pile up the shares. Many times (for example with TMO) they would make more money if they held the shares until retirement. Unfortunately it is the real world, and $50 million in the hand is worth $150 million in the bush. Besides, these guys have living expenses. Don't cry for Dekkers for selling TMO at $54. He will reap another $50 million dollars on his next round of stock options in 2-3 years, and the stock will probably be close to $100 by then. Do you get it now?