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Great Panther Silver Ltd Message Board

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  • tony_campillo tony_campillo Aug 13, 2011 10:43 PM Flag


    The problem with TA is you can always find technical indiocators that contradict your pet indicators. For example, the Point and Figure Chart method suggests GPL will drop to $2.25 ("bearish price objective").,PLTCDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!4!20]&pnf=y

    If it does drop to that level, it'll be a fantastic buying opportunity because GPL's fundamentals are sound.

    BTW, I'm a long. I have owned GPL for about 6 months and added 2000 shares at $3.15 on Friday.

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      • 1 Reply to tony_campillo
      • I don't post often here, but stumbled on Robo's excellent analysis as I was preparing to post something simular at freechartvideos DOT com, in their forum. GPL is one of the stocks we have been watching on and off now for several months. PZG is another. I would encourage anyone interested in learning something about technical analysis to visit. A lot can be learned from just watching the nightly analysis of the S&P 500 chart.

        Robo, I would add to your technical view that the Neck Line from the March Head&Shoulder is currently sitting at $3.03. Any close 3% below that (2.94 on Monday) gives a future target around $1.20 - which looks outrageous, but I've seen stranger things. On Tues. 8/9, the N.L. was broken when we came down and tagged the 200 DMA, but that day's reversal brought the close up above the N.L. - a strong, bullish indicator. I have to suspect that the N.L. will be penetrated again and have my buy orders in. Any sharp moves down from there and I'm out. It is possible the 200 DMA gets tested again, but there is no technical reason to do so.

        I am worried a bit about a possible bear flag from the 6/8/11 low of $2.52. It has two possible bottom flag lines to it's channel. The target for the first one has been met, but if the lower flag line is correct, unlikely, it indicates a target of 2.67. Not a big deal as long as we do not close 3% below the Neckline on any penetrations.

        A few things I like here is that the day after a relatively disappointing earnings announcement, the stock sold off on lower volume. With earnings and CC just completed there should be no nasty surprises around the corner. The last few days has seen silver showing surprising strength as POG has corrected. This needs to keep up. GPL has high volume which makes it much easier to GTFO if the chart turns against longs. As another poster mentioned, symmetrical triangles are most often a consolidation pattern which indicate a continuation of overall trend direction.

        A few things that still bother me is there have been no volume indicators of a bottom. All PMs will remain under pressure unless POG makes new highs and starts going parabolic. POG needs to at least consolidate here after breaking up out of it's longterm top trendline. All miners are likely to correct along with any sharp falls in the equity markets, and I think we make new lows yet in the equity markets (just hope they aren't sharp). Several of the silver miners, and a few of the gold miners, have broken through the necklines of their charts and look to be going much lower. Have to wonder if they all will eventually. PM miners tend to bottom in Sept. and Oct. - we ain't there yet.

        It is worth the risk for me to start buying shares as the share price rebounds off this N.L. Volume is likely to decrease unless we have a 3% close under the N.L. then it could gap down. Would love to see a doji star or hammer on the candlesticks to help indicate a bottom.

        Disclosure: No current position. Sharing the pain with PZG longs.

1.31+0.010(+0.77%)Oct 24 4:00 PMEDT