Yes FLO has made a considerable investment in Hostess products and bakeries but they won't contribute to the bottom line till at least the fall and then will build over time justifying current price. I think the price is about $4.00 in front of its self at this time. FLO is trading at a forward PE of at least 20 - I don't think we can hold here into the spring. As for a split - well not at this PE, they will wait for earnings to grow into this price before they risk putting price back into the mid teens. FLO is a solid investment and a good custodian of your investment dollars - just a little in front of its self on this reasoned run.. JMHO
You may be right about the price; however, it has been driven by higher estimates for both 2013 and 1014. In the last 90 days 2013 consensus has gone form $1.16 to $1.34 per share with high estimate of $1.48. The 2014 estimate over 90 days went from $1.34 to $1.52 per share with a high estimate of $1.70.
I agree about the high PE and I actually sold some shares and diversified into McCormick Spices, But I will keep the rest for the long pull as I expect down the road another 2 for 3 split.
They have done some amazing things with Tasty and the bread brands bought in New England. I used to live in NJ and was within the Tasty distribution area. I know see it here in the Indianapolis area. Since I have a lot of relatives in NJ I kept my vacation property in the Poconos and load up on Tasty when I go out there. A friend of mine who lives in South Jersey believes that their Individual size Lemon Pie is the best on the market. It is truely amazing how they are expanding this brand. Also see my Zack's post.
Your study and referenced earnings estimates are impressive and probable. I just think over next few months the share price will be more reflective of the cost of time?? I've been in and out of FLO the last 33 years and never shorted it till just now - I may lose on this negative position but don't think I'll get my head handed to me at the current price premium. Flowers is a solid company - I just think we'll see $29 before we see $35????? Can I hold is the question - or will I cover in short time??