Leptin: Amgen has preliminary 6-month data from a
trial of second
generation leptin, as well as
pre-clinical data from a third generation
versions appear to be superior to the original molecule
because of their greater solubility, allowing
delivery of a higher dose
of the protein. Hence Amgen
has decided to discontinue development of the
original form of leptin in obesity and diabetes. We see
this as a positive development.
I contemplated selling my May 65 calls at the
close yesterday but I thought I would take an earnings
shot. No real suprises, but I think the 1.80-1.85
estimate is what is spooking the stock, since 1.85 had
been the established number. It will open lower, but I
think it will be bid back to the mid sixties. Yesterday
was a pretty good short squeeze. The stock, which I
see now at 60 7/8 will gap down, meaning technically
it shoould move higher to close the gap.
report out today maintains LT/ST buy, $1.85 est,
and 12 mo. target of 84. Binder was doing his job and
us a favor of maintaining his creditability on the
street...even if we get popped a little in the short term.
Having been in stocks on the other side of the
creditability issue, I for one am very comfortable with AMGN.
Good investing longs.
I didn't hear any details, but just heard that
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter down graded us. If this stock
goes down anymore, we'll be looking like a value
stock. :-( At $60/share our curreny fiscal year P/E is
33.33 Any lower and we'll be in the range of the
telecom stocks. Now we'll see if the insiders come out
I'm holding on...
trading at $65. Instinet traders aren't exactly
rocket scientists who look at the real eaarnigs numbers,
they look at est vs act and act on it at an impulse.
If you look at the whole picture, like the
intelligent on this board do, AMGN numbers and forward
looking ( conservative) statements look good too. It
already has corrected from the mid-80's. So here we stay.
The momentum traders will leave AMGN and the Long Term holders will stay. I've held AMGN for a decade and it's never been stronger. Just a bump in the price, not the fundamentals. Good Luck