For all the talk of the impending death of the DVD and Redbox what seems to be lost is that you aren't really paying anything for the business - especially if the coin business were sold. At this point, there is essentially no net debt. Retiring the convert with cash would leave a share count at about 31mm shares outstanding. I believe coin could be LBOed at around 8x EBITDA or about $900mm or about $29 per share. At today's prices, you are creating Redbox and all the venture businesses for about $18.7 per share or an EV of about $578mm. At $400 of EBITDA for Redbox or about 1.5x. So maybe Redbox goes away but it better be soon for the bears to be right at these levels.
I often calculate a bottom price for a stock, the price where it can't go any lower, and I think Coinstar is close to the bottom. A fourth of America doesn't have internet at home, and a $1.20 DVD has a lot of appeal to them. I have internet, and I still prefer Redbox.
I think your math is basically right. On top of this, the Redbox Instant venture will quickly create value, Starbucks kiosks have lots of potential, the company can raise prices to $1.40 with very little kickback, and as it continues to buy back shares, the stock price has nowhere to go but up. I am thinking about buying some more since it might be close to a bottom and still has lots of cash generating potential.