I often calculate a bottom price for a stock, the price where it can't go any lower, and I think Coinstar is close to the bottom. A fourth of America doesn't have internet at home, and a $1.20 DVD has a lot of appeal to them. I have internet, and I still prefer Redbox.
I think your math is basically right. On top of this, the Redbox Instant venture will quickly create value, Starbucks kiosks have lots of potential, the company can raise prices to $1.40 with very little kickback, and as it continues to buy back shares, the stock price has nowhere to go but up. I am thinking about buying some more since it might be close to a bottom and still has lots of cash generating potential.