Oh, and it's impossible to tell how long litigation is going to be. Courts are notoriously slow, and if USAA is intent on dragging this out, I'm sure they'll do just that -- again, just like a bitter ex-wife dragging out divorce proceedings to bleed the ex-husband. If they had any sense, they'd just settle out of court for the money they believe they overpaid to Mitek. The remainder of their claims seem to be without merit, so I don't know why they'd continue, except out of spite (which seems to be the tone of their original lawsuit).
If you're trying to hit a bottom there's two clues to follow.
One is a high volume bottom and the other low.
MITK looks like it's going to settle into a low volume one.
So when you see the volume come down to 300K or so and the price stabilize I'd say that would be pretty close...barring any new events/news.
I also don't feel MITK will settle for just paying back USAA 400K. It was never about that. It's about the "new negotiations" MITK wanted to start on USAA's mobile deposit to tune of 2.5M that got this started.
USAA is just playing hard ball, but MITK clearly pushed too hard too fast IMO. MITK had let USAA run with their patents and software for two years now, then decide they want an additional 2.5M (and then some) instantly. When USAA balked MITK threatened to pull the plug on them. It appears this entire process played out over less than two weeks total.
This is/was ridiculous. But MITK's software is key to USAA's business, meaning USAA had to make a quick decision. Either pay or sue, delaying the process (maybe for years). Of course USAA know they have no case, but that matters little. Now they have some leverage where before they had none...which is why MITK thought one good threat and USAA would have to pay up.
Big miscalculation on MITK"s part, costing them 150M in short term market cap.
This probably depends on whether or not people take the time to do their diligence...and whether a big investor wants to try to flush it down. I wouldn't be shocked to see it sub-$5 before all is said and done, but I also think once it turns around, it will probably shoot right back up to the $10-12 level pretty quickly. I've read through both companies' motions and tried to research the issues as much as possible, so my opinion is based on that. Patents don't lie, and USAA just comes across as a bitter ex-wife in their lawsuit. It'll all be resolved in time, IMO. Disclosure: I bought a small position just north of $8 and will add to that if we see $5, unless it just blows through 5