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Dawson Geophysical Company Message Board

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  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Nov 22, 2005 9:58 AM Flag


    Last point on this subject - I disagree....

    This sector is now something like one of those humongous tug of wars -- or arm wrestles.... in which the "lead" changes frequently and "dramatically."

    There is still so much "hot money" in energy stox that if you can think of a low transaction cost way simply to bet on HIGH VOLATILITY, you'll make more money than you can count over the next 3-6 months.

    Point is that DWSN, given its thin-ness and some tax selling, will swing even wider and I'll wager that

    1) one or more analysts will choose NOT to spin stuff the way some of you obviously head-in-the-sand folks (sorry, gotta call 'em like I seez 'em) are and'll suggest moving on -- especially if a point or 2 below $30 holds (until they blow the whistle).

    2) the stock'll see $25 before year-end. THAT might be a great point to load up but at these levels, anybody with a brain will either move to cash or move to something like GMRK if they want to "stay in the game." ... An analyst really gets whipped (by his/her mgt.) for the appearance of rigidity. This was a crap qtr. -- whether mgt. "signaled" it to the analysts or not. You can come up with all sorts of "theories" as to why -- with the sector on fire -- they gagged, but sometimes (and on the Street it's definitely ALMOST ALWAYS) the right move is to admit your mistakes and move on.

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    • I completely disagree with what you are saying. The quarter was a great one, as long as you are not focused on today's earnings only.

      Dawson management looks only at the long term. They are in it for what it takes to grow the company and provide long term value to share holders. They could have done many things to 'cook the books' but they didn't.

      I have spoken with Decker Dawson a couple of times and he knows this business inside and out. His focus in long term, which is also mine. I am not worried about the price over the next day, week or month. I care if it is up in 3 - 5 years, or more, as that is when I will be looking at taking some profits by selling.

      Also, keep in mind that even though Dawson is in the 'petro industry' this is not the same play as Conoco or Chevron or any of the other oil plays. This is a service industry that will always be in demand. If the price of oil fell today to $35 a share, Dawson would still have a large demand for their product.

      If your perspective is about tomorrow, then you shouldn't be in small cap stocks. If you are worried about long term prospects, then look at management, look at their decisions to see if they are good or not. Look how they treat share holders.

      Did you notice that the number of outstanding shares dropped by 10%? The net value of our shares increased because there are fewer outstanding now. Yes, this means that the earnings were actually lower then they appeared, but long term the share reduction is fantastic. Instead of wasting the money on management bonuses, they returned the value to shareholders.

6.93+0.02(+0.29%)Oct 27 4:00 PMEDT