I think everyone is happy with this year and going into next year a quarter or so, but what folks are worried about with EXP is sheetrock. The home sales are way down (about 200K homes ince last year) and Katrina will add only around 50K more new homes and remodels a year. So, with that kind of decrease in building, a large new plant coming online in 2007 and a major plant expansion that same year, people are worried about a precipitous drop in sheetrock pricing. Now, the cement side should do fine, but that isn't going to increase enough to make up for the continuing decline in new home starts. If I was buying for the next two quarters or three quarters, I'd pay more than this, but for two years or three years it doesn't look great. Good, OK, if you have a very long five or ten year view, but great? No, there are better places to put your money right now.
You are so right. EXP holders should not get excited about Bernanke's statements and the resulting one day pop, as it probably will be only one day and then back to the crummy market as usual lately. Way more chance of returning to the same old same old than a market turnaround. But, a good day to get some losses back and sell into today's strength.
Not much room for dissapointment in that forecast. They've simply raised their forecast to meet what's already expected, at least by Thompson. Glad I took some money off the table in the high 50's. We may just be retesting lows, though. Could get a nice pop if 1st quarter gives a strong upside surprise.