and as you would imagine, the obama admin has lied to us again.
After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in xxxxx County, xxxxx suggested I send an update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media.
Some of you know some or maybe all of this, but I will just list what facts I know.
The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is unusual) -
Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the "attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical
attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms.
This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.
The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month-old near here is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the
US, folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators.
What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed. Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis. There are 10 to 25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory. I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the
next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.
I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close contact that are the biggest risk.
Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.
You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER's south of here are becoming overwhelmed -- and I
mean that -- already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.
It appears that this flu produces a distinctive "hoarseness" in many victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu's; namely, sore throat, body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some have all these symptoms, while others may have only one or two.
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Swine Flu Could Mix with Other Viruses
May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu’s potential to reconfigure its genetic material and become more deadly is a “major concern,” said Anne Schuchat, a scientist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The prospect of what is called reassortment is keeping Schuchat and health officials worldwide on the alert even as the newest outbreak has proved itself to be relatively mild outside Mexico, where 19 of the 20 confirmed deaths were reported. Human cases of the disease have been confirmed in 30 U.S. states and 19 countries, according to the CDC and the World Health Organization, a global agency that may declare a pandemic.
Canadian health officials yesterday reported the world’s first case of the swine flu jumping to pigs from a human, probably after a farm worker in the province of Alberta became ill during a trip to Mexico. Additional gene reassortment has the potential to change the makeup of the disease, Schuchat said today in a conference call.
“The prospect of reassortment is always there with influenza,” Schuchat said in the conference call today. The agency is especially concerned that the new flu, already a risk of causing sickness and death worldwide, may mutate in human or pig populations, she said.
(read the complete story at bloomberg.com)
BOY HO BOY!!
Alan Johnson, the health secretary, said swine flu had so far been contained in Britain but warned against complacency.
"Our evidence from all previous pandemics is that you get two phases. You get a first wave that is often very mild and then you get a much more serious wave that comes along in the autumn and the winter," he told BBC1's The Andrew Marr Show.
"So we have to not just deal with this outbreak now, but prepare, perhaps, for a second phase further down the line."
Although the WHO has declared a phase 5 alert level – one step short of declaring a pandemic – Johnson said that the measures taken in the UK had proved effective in limiting the spread of the disease.
"There will be more cases. There are 15 confirmed at the moment, that will go up, there is absolutely no doubt of that. But at the moment all the evidence is that we can confine it, contain it, and treat it effectively."
(doesn't appear right now, to have a high mortality rate...hope that does not change) >
Swine H1N1 Transmission From Human to Swine
Recombinomics Commentary May 3, 2009
The pigs in Alberta were thought to be infected by a farm worker who returned from Mexico on April 12 and began working on the farm two days later. Officials noticed the pigs had flu-like symptoms April 24, Evans said.
Approximately 10 percent of the 2,200 pigs on the farm have been infected, Evans said.
The above comments describe the transmission of the H1N1 swine flu from an infected farm worker to swine in Alberta, Canada. This efficient transmission from human to swine suggests that much of the speculation in the past week is overly optimistic.
The virus is swine, WHO newspeak notwithstanding, and contains six swine gene segments as well as a human PB1 and an avian PB2 that have been in swine for more than a decade. Therefore, although swine to swine transmission is not unexpected, the trans mission from human to swine is striking. The H1N1 is called swine H1N1 for scientific reason. It is not a “nickname” as some media accounts mis-report, but a descriptive name that defines its normal host. The species differences in sequence are easily determined, and species jumps are rare, but can be deadly. Usually the virus replicates most effectively in is host species.
The jump to humans is cause for concern. The last time as swine flu jumped to human and was efficiently spread in the new host was in 1918.
The fact that the virus can jump from human to swine as well as swine to humans suggests this virus is not going to fade away. It has already moved into the southern hemisphere. Suspect cases have been reported in Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand, where the seasonal flu season is just beginning.
Co-circulation of human and swine H1N1 provide significant opportunities for adaptation to the human host via recombination. Two polymorphisms are already fixed in seasonal flu, H274Y for Tamiflu resistance, and E627K in PB2 which allows the virus to more efficiently replicate at lower temperatures.
These changes can lead to adaptation in humans, as well antiviral resistance. Therefore, the evolution of the H1N1 over the summer will be closely monitored. The current H1N1 has already acquired tandem human H1N1 polymorphism in HA, which may have led to the species jump from swine to human.
Thus, the efficient transmission from swine to human and vice verse, raises concerns that further adaptation to humans can lead to a fall pandemic similar to 1918. The species jump indicates the virus can adapt to a new host, and additional acquisitions over the summer continue to be a cause for concern.
chill the f out. the numbers are tiny right now and dont seem to be getting that much worse i mean 20 million people in mexico city and 100 deaths please get grip.
will this flu get worse, yes probably by fall
we should have a vaccine by then thanks to a competent Obama administration
Well, thank you so much for your in depth knowledge of the subject and just where was that you got your Medical Training? What I posted was from a Doctor in Northern Texas indicating this was more serious than the media is letting on. I rather suspect your sources to be from a chat room or comic book.