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DRDGOLD Ltd. Message Board

  • ahhaha2 ahhaha2 Mar 22, 2002 1:07 PM Flag

    Voice calling from Raptor's wilderness

    I think it's time to sell. We have the head in place. The sentiment is decidedly one-sided. Every trade analysis shows an incredible negative divergence between flow and price in most gold stocks. The strongest of the golds is GOLD yet its flow is almost flat. The gold commodity market short squeezed today all due to Japan's Big Bang. That was it. You can hang around and maybe chip a few more cents, but the R/R ain't there.

    Of course, I wouldn't be truly negative unless I said:

    DOGGIES! Assume the position. The great Rico y Raptor has sent me forth to bring the glad tidings. (swear words deleted)

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    • If you read the article closely, you'll find the stature of Gross effectively challenged by the presence of Pisani.

      Gross's argument is that GE can't expect to grow at 15% if the economy only grows at 3%, and then concludes GE must be involved in a scheme by which it borrows in the commersh market to fund acquisitions which are growing faster than 15% with attendant risk not fairly reflected in GE's cost to fund rate. Specifically, GE's earnings are more risky than they seem. Gross doesn't dispute GE's earnings quality, but he wonders if large borrowers like PIMCO can take GE's commersh without fully knowing all the risk parameters.

      Bill Gross and others will convey this concern to the markets by failing to pick up GE's commersh to the extent they have in the past. This is how markets adjust to changing perceptions of risk. This would be reflected in stock price since GE's factoring scheme coukldn't be expected to continue as it had. However, theeconomy may grow during the interim at a rate of 5% thereby negating the effect of the changed earnings expectation.

      None of this has any consequence for gold. Indeed, if there was a major default which isn't what Gross is suggesting, the implication would be deflationary just as all debt oriented issues are. I'll never understand where the idea that debt and gold are somehow related. The relation is inverse. The only reason gold will rise on trend comes from inflationary expectations. When inflation is rising the quantity of debt that can be sold is falling. After all, who wants to lend money that will be returned worth less?

    • Actually, this issue is not just "media made gobble." Read Bill Gross's original comments:

      http://www.pimcofunds.com/PIMCO?op=www&mainsection=bond_center&subsection=commen
      tary&request=bond_center_mgr_interviews&content_id=37211


      Notice particularly the paragraph, "Gross: No, I was referring later on more specifically to the Nasdaq-100 companies, in which, for the year of 2001, they reported earnings to stockholders of close to $10 billion, but reported earnings on what they call a GAAP basis, or generally accepted accounting basis, of $80 billion in deficit. And the cheating, as I refer to, it can be cheating in a mild form in terms of footnotes to financial statements, in terms of this difference between pro forma accounting and GAAP accounting, or it can be outright, as perhaps in the case of Enron."

      The point is that you cannot trust the accuracy of the official disclosures. As Gross points out, he is "concerned about their disclosure." When an individual of this stature pipes up, it would behoove one to listen and listen well. It is appearing more and more that the value of the Dow stocks is a sham and kept at the present levels by hype and deception. Their price implosion is a catastrophe just waiting to happen.

      Gold is not in this situation a commodity. It is money. And money you can trust. The miners are rising because the market is beginning to understand this and to be able to tell the difference between puff and substance.

      As far as Jimmy Dines goes, in my experience you are correct. He is an eloquent and entertaining writer but his calls and predictions are far too vague to be of value and some of his recommendations (such as Mediconsult.com) have been disastrous.

    • GE is in no trouble. That's just media made gobble. GE is headed substantially higher. You won't get a later rally in gold unless industrial stocks put on quite an upside show.

      I said earlier that I hadn't read one post here going back indefinitely that had a clue about what drives gold. No, not one. None of you has the slightest comprehension of what needs to be in place. Maybe what is needed will get in place. Maybe it won't.

      That goes double for Dines. I've been in this biz as long as he has, and I know just how useless he is. If you can make a dime on what he says and when he says it, good luck. Anyone that has been around for some time and whose legs aren't stuck in butter and whose eyes aren't coated with silver, will appreciate what I say.

    • I sure wouldn't argue aqgainst such a balanced view. It will help to keep one's psychology if things start crapping out. At least the old timers are used to the failures.

    • Here's the "almost flat" flow for GOLD from Wednesday:

      BatBoy513's Accumulation/Distribution Summary
      Gold Fields Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD)

      Date: 20 MAR 2002
      Time: 09:30:00 EST to 15:59:59 EST

      Shares Traded...
      Under Bid: 140,500 (37 transactions)
      At Bid: 475,600 (568 transactions)
      Between Bid and Ask: 302,000 (228 transactions)
      At Ask: 978,600 (934 transactions)
      Over Ask: 355,700 (82 transactions)

      Percent of Shares Traded...
      At or under Bid: 27.35% (616,100)
      Between Bid and Ask: 13.41% (302,000)
      At or over Ask: 59.24% (1,334,300)

      Total Shares Traded: 2,252,400
      Total Transactions: 1,849

      Volume by Price Summary
      PRICE VOLUME % | @BID @ASK ALL
      $8.99 2,400 .11% | 0 2 3
      $8.98 20,500 .91% | 0 2 5
      $8.97 83,000 3.68% | 0 46 52
      $8.96 48,500 2.15% | 1 6 17
      $8.95 116,100 5.15% | 12 98 127
      $8.94 86,800 3.85% | 2 90 105
      $8.93 152,700 6.78% | 95 23 126
      $8.92 158,700 7.05% | 7 70 99
      $8.91 71,700 3.18% | 23 35 77
      $8.90 204,500 9.08% | 86 118 223
      $8.89 56,500 2.51% | 40 19 71
      $8.88 38,300 1.70% | 11 19 39
      $8.87 72,100 3.20% | 13 19 55
      $8.86 34,700 1.54% | 27 9 42
      $8.85 52,700 2.34% | 31 14 53
      $8.84 21,900 .97% | 14 18 36
      $8.83 19,000 .84% | 6 0 7
      $8.82 21,300 .95% | 0 9 11
      $8.81 6,900 .31% | 0 6 6
      $8.80 30,600 1.36% | 11 17 32
      $8.79 55,100 2.45% | 2 14 19
      $8.78 68,800 3.05% | 5 17 28
      $8.77 26,400 1.17% | 0 16 18
      $8.76 29,200 1.30% | 13 4 25
      $8.75 111,900 4.97% | 12 36 61
      $8.74 52,800 2.34% | 8 15 30
      $8.73 29,000 1.29% | 4 8 18
      $8.72 16,100 .71% | 7 14 28
      $8.71 28,200 1.25% | 7 14 32
      $8.70 52,100 2.31% | 29 12 50
      $8.69 6,300 .28% | 1 1 5
      $8.68 1,500 .07% | 4 0 4
      $8.67 1,200 .05% | 2 0 3
      $8.66 18,600 .83% | 0 6 11
      $8.65 2,000 .09% | 1 2 7
      $8.64 500 .02% | 0 0 1
      $8.63 117,800 5.23% | 0 7 9
      $8.62 7,600 .34% | 1 1 4
      $8.61 1,200 .05% | 0 4 8
      $8.60 12,500 .55% | 0 2 12
      $8.59 22,100 .98% | 0 1 5
      $8.58 16,300 .72% | 0 16 16
      $8.57 22,600 1.00% | 0 18 20
      $8.56 14,500 .64% | 1 7 10
      $8.55 50,900 2.26% | 3 35 38
      $8.54 18,900 .84% | 2 5 11
      $8.53 1,500 .07% | 1 0 2
      $8.52 17,800 .79% | 1 10 12
      $8.51 6,000 .27% | 3 1 7
      $8.50 17,000 .75% | 12 17 34
      $8.49 37,800 1.68% | 8 5 20
      $8.48 32,100 1.43% | 9 9 22
      $8.47 -5,100 -.23% | 5 3 13
      $8.46 2,100 .09% | 4 0 5
      $8.45 13,900 .62% | 4 4 10
      $8.44 1,100 .05% | 0 0 2
      $8.43 3,500 .16% | 4 0 7
      $8.42 900 .04% | 1 1 3
      $8.41 15,000 .67% | 13 2 19
      $8.40 3,800 .17% | 3 1 4
      $8.39 100 .00% | 2 0 3
      $8.38 5,600 .25% | 0 5 7
      $8.37 6,200 .28% | 3 1 6
      $8.35 10,100 .45% | 14 0 14

      There were a few correctional ticks which resulted in a negative sum at 8.47.

      I'm still trying to figure out what ahhaha2 means by the term "flow".

    • ahaha2, I'm not sure how you came about with your info, but the money flow is big into gold now. Now, you can't prove what you said, but pull up any chart and look at money flow, obv, recent volume.
      peace,
      stockalo

      • 1 Reply to stockalo
      • I have every trade in every gold stock, so I can easily compute net tick volume oriented money flow. The volume has been large as the public has piled in, but in spite of this little guy buying which has been going on for at least 6 months, the flow is net out. The public exuberance is being used to distribute shares. That's what price divergence from trend is all about. Meanhwile the gold stocks have taken off without gold. I guess gold stocks don't bullion. They just need the greater fools and they're coming in boatloads from Japan as we all know.