not about DROOY. It's already lagged way behind the others the past two years. Or so it seems to me.
But rather, about the US$ bounce. And then watching NEM, in my opinion, it better not take out a pretty big H&S being formed since 11/07 with a low of 41.11 or thereabouts and the last low 1/15/04 at around 41.70 cause the projection then is to about $37 - $38 range and that my friends, would not be too good. Not sure about DROOY because she seems to be holding fairly steady around these prices but the rest of my GSS, BGO & WHT portfolio.
Anyhow, just thinking out loud.
February is the worst month for gold and if the dollar takes a month or two vacation from it's slide I suspect the HUI will drop to 200 or maybe even back to 150. NEM is the key, if it drops below 41.70 on a closing basis I am out of all my gold stocks then and there except for Drooy. But if Drooy can't hold 330 or has bad earnings I am out of Drooy too. No 1. rule: Take profits. No 2. rule, sell gold stocks but never sell gold (or silver if you have it). No. 3 rule. Keep your cash if there is a big correction in the gold stocks 'cause by the time Bush gets re upped we will see $480 gold.
Our portfolios appear very similar all4reel. I'm not sure how much more GSS, BGO and WHT might dip but I'm not worried about it.
IMHO the realistic worse case scenario is that this year is a repeat of 2002 - a hard shake out and consolidation the rest of the year. Boring, but not a concern for the long term.
A more likely scenario IMHO is that Japan finds they did not print enough Yen to support the dollar this year, the EU formally draws a line in the sand at $1.35 and ends up printing more Euros to support the dollar, gold breaks out in all major currencies and heads well over $500 by the end of the year.
I know that sounds like hype but I honestly think that is a higher probability than a major correction and consolidation period for gold and miners.
Best of luck no matter how it goes.
as I posted earlier, this was not a good week. I was hoping for a flat to up, and we ended flat to down. Indications are that we are in for futher correction, although that is not confirmed at this time. Drooy is holding up well with its long term trends, and it will probably stay flat to up even if gold further corrects.
NEM appears to have exactly retraced a minimum fib of 32%. I share your sentiment that it needs to hold right here or we're looking at 50%. I suspect it will hold, I feel like we're at a good buy-in point on NEM though I don't trade majors except with options.
I'm very skeptical that French jaw-boning will have any lasting impact on the value of the dollar.