Lots of refis coming up in the next 12 months. New home sales picking up as well. Earnings should be solidly higher quarter over quarter over quarter. Today, though, the water is too high for the levee. Ugly. Shareholders in IMH have big upside because of the small float. Remember, Bernanke is buying up $40 billion in MBS every month with no end in sight. Rates stay low and mangement executes well, the quarterly earnings should accelerate. They need to continue significant expansion in scope and then try to get taken out in 2 years. How does that sound?
It sounds like you are desperate.
There are no rationality and rules in the market.
The Market is not an intellectual exercise.
All you can do is just follow the price/volume action to your advantage and try to lose as little as possible
Don't you mean try to make as much as possiblt not lose as little as possible? In the short term maybe price and volume dictate but in the longer term fundamentals still hold sway. IMH is obviously one of the most volatile stocks out there right now but they will contnue to go up if they can grow market share in refis and new home financing. Interest rates and general economic conditions will be the big factor from the macro perspective and the ability of the IMH management and employees to execute in a favorable environment. These factors should prevail for shareholders in the upcoming quarters. BTW, my bais is aroung 70 cents per share so desperate is probably the wrong word. However, losing equity always hurts whether you have a gain or loss on the position. Have a good weekend -- hopefully, most of the blood has been let out for longs.
BUT---this is the SAME Bernanke who said in the Spring of '08 that he did not see any recession on the horizon.........what are the chances of rates rising as part of 'dealing' with the fiscal cliff?
A great question -- I have been wrong on rates (bonds) but right on stocks. I have learned not to fight the Fed. Eventually it will pop but with the Fed buying and Obama reelected and global growth nonexistent, US Treasuries still get purchased. The fiscal cliff should probably raise tax revenue and cut spending which should help keep rates low (although anything can happen in this perverse world). If we do not just crash completely, there should be solid housing activity the next 12 - 18 months. We will see if IMH can take advantage -- Today was crazy, just crazy.
after going through so much troubleto keep thiscompamy alive i wouldnt understand why management would want a buyout.(unless its to save the company) but i bet we can blame the seeking alpha article for majority of our losses today
I agree repn314 -- good to see you are still in. I saw a 100 share sell drop the stock like 70 cents after it tried to rally back. Is there a market maker? Can shorts just put in crazy low market orders through a long account? Anyway, you are probably right on the buyout but I am not sure how long (if at all) this mortgage refi and home buying continues. My point is there should be a plan to go strong for 12 - 18 months and position for suitors at least as a contingency. I am staying long cause of the earnings and would love to see the same incremental growth from Q3 to Q4. Good luck to us.