IMHO, not many expected this amount of write downs for the 4th q. Also, the CC was very negative. Here are my takeaways from the CC:
The company had a hard time explaining these write downs to the analysts. Joe even displayed an arrogant attitude toward some analysts. I got the impression Joe didn't appreciate someone questioning his business acumen. Well, too bad. This is a PUBLIC company, and the analysts and shareholders have every right to ask questions about how the earnings are calculated.
Also, originations are trending down for q1 2013. Which means the next qtr's report will be weak.
Another concern I have is, what is Izso Capital going to do? They hold about 800k shares. If they were disappointed too, then they might start dumping their shares. Can you imagine what that will do to the share price? I think we will be down in the single digits before this is over.
roamingmann, thanks for this one. I thought the CC was okay. Its always been that way, if you go back and listen a couple. Q4 and Q1 are generally slow due to the winter in majority of America. I believe that may be the reason for slowdown in origination. Q-o-Q comparison may be a better metric. Disappointed with the price per share. Earnings looked good to me if you adjust the non cash writedown which may fix itself in the future quarters. To me, I felt management has done the best considering that the industry group in general is not a great business to be in. Keep in mind, those who were with 3x to 5x gains may have booked some profits due to slowing growth. Not sure what else could be the reason. Agree about pretty harsh selloff.
I agree...the bears won this round.....This business is seasonal, most of our money will be made in Q2 and Q3. This is a buying opportunity. We "might" have one more quarter of weakness until the housing season begins.
Also - Funny thing about it, is that the company made money yet was still punished. The CEO hinted that Q1 will be profitable but I guess if we dont pump out 2.00 a share we'll be punished again?