China Mobile has 660 Million Users--Who Cares How Many are Sold In USA
Lumina and Samsung are only two high-end phones in China. If Lumina convinces 5% of their user base to switch to the Lumina 920, that is 30 million phones. Iphone will be available in China in next 9 to 12 months as they begin to roll out 4LTE in that country. Lumina and Samsung have a 1 year lead. Lumina will be the only WP8 Phone in China.
EE-Largest provider in Europe (50 million subscribers) will offer Lumina on 4LTE with Iphone5. Nokia has deep history in Europe so this battle will be interesting.
Lastly, in USA--Lumina is being added to Verizon. (100 million subscribers) in Q4. Lumina can take 2% of Verizon users . It took 2% of ATT last year (80 million subscribers).
The analyst say 10 million takes Nokia over $5 and makes msft a success.
The numbers are not exactly right, but if Nokia can sell 8 million in Q4 with new phone, then Q1 will look be around 14 million. Those numbers put this over $5.
Realistically, (unless 900 sales surprise) we might see 4 million Q4 and 8 million Q1 2013. This would still push the stock closer to $4.
Expectations are very low so any surprise will move the stock.
My gut tells me carriers will do everything in their power to move customers to non Apple products. Personally, I'm biased for the Lumias. I was reading where VZ will be taking a $5 billion dollar write down on the subsidized Iphones they sell in Q3 &4. Ouch. OTOH, the royalities NOK makes on Apple's Iphone already are running into the $100s of Millions.