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  • clcellve clcellve Oct 7, 2012 9:48 AM Flag

    watch out for the Apple Stampede,Apple's Time at the top ends in 2013

    Some very interesting and potentially insightful/useful comments for readers, in this post and other similar posts on the respective future values of Apple, Nokia, and other companies.

    My comments:

    Valuing a company based on past performance is like driving looking in your rear view mirror. There is useful information there and it is real information, but it won’t tell you where you’re going.

    This is especially true in tech, an industry with an unforgiving pace of change. Past performance is relevant, but it can be a misleading indicator of future performance.

    It is inherently risky predicting the future, and the risk in tech is compounded by the rapid pace of change in several variables. One variable often overlooked (to the peril of investors and companies) is the nature of the customer. Customers for toothpaste are fairly stable in their usage and outlook – not so tech. Customers in tech CHANGE – they evolve – they learn to use new devices and software. The nature of the customer changes and the number of potential customers increases.

    Most buyers of data phones today buy for functionality, not “coolness”.

    The Windows 8 eco-system – the ability to move data (anything digital – ANYTHING digital – make your own list) between platforms in Windows 8 is unmatched by any other eco-system. In other words, the functionality is unmatched. Windows 8 will win the functionality wars because they have the best eco-system, and within that platform Nokia offers the best overall value to the customer - quality, design, and innovation, at virtually all price points.

    One last point – on markets – Nokia, and separately, Microsoft/Windows, are both recognized and respected brand names around the world – essentially in all markets. Apple is much more limited.

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    • You are absolutely correct.Very important point.Tech customers today are all about functionality.I always switched phones for this reason.Apple is one market company,U.S.
      The reason I was so scared when I still owned Apple was,they are so dependent on the U.S consumer but the U.S consumer is the least loyal consumer.U.S consumers go for the best product on the market and now that competition for smart phones has gotten equal (Apple is behind Samsung and might be behind Nokia when Lumia is release and consumers test it),Apple is in trouble.Samsung has got a strong product in its S2 and S3, and if Nokia's Lumia gets good reviews which its already getting (actually got some sexy features that will apeal to many tech savy and band wagon customers),iphone 5 and Apple in general is in big trouble.

      Windows ecosystem is not well known but that will change with the Nokia Lumia,HCT and Samsung new smart phones.I believe the new WP8 smartphones coming out this holiday season will finally introduce the Windows Ecosystem and might..will say might expose the deficiency with Apple's iOS.Apples customers will flock to windows ecosystem if the smart phones carry the emblem of windows prove very compelling to own.This is why I devested myself from Apple and invested into windows and Nokia.The ground has moved beneath Apple.
      Nokia is still the number one brand in the world.its number one brand in Africa,Asia and Samsung has just displaced it from being the number brand in Europe but Nokia might get it back from samsung and start being number one brand in Europe again with its Lumia smart phones.Nokia will never run out of cash,its a diversified company with a strong brand and its know for quality cell phones throughout the world.All Nokia needs to do to get its mojo back is do well in the U.S market,not extremely but be competitive in the U.S market to get investors back into its stock.Nokia's fundamentals are not really bad,its just that big name investors are not excited about the stock and that might change when Nokia Lumia smart phone do extremely well in the is what it comes down to because the actual product is desirable and great according to people who have tested the product.I have not seen any negative about the lumia other than the weight.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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