Nokia’s investors may be pleased with the strong reception that the recently launched Lumia Windows Phone 8 smartphones have seen. However uncertainty remains over whether the demand is a result of a supply crunch, as well as how long the demand will last – uncertainty that will remain until Nokia reveals its sales figures.
Success is priced in now and any slight disappointment in sales number could be a quick correction.
When one resorts to sarcasm it is because they are hiding something more profound. Sarcasm works like a shield. It protects the emitter of the message from exposing themselves. There´s a leak from their unconscious that permeates to the surface. Could that leak be 'worry"?
You have totally misread this. The uncertainty is there for sure, just like any stock before earnnings. Nok has beaten estimate 6 out of the last 8 quarters (while losing money). The point is wall street can't resist comparing NOK to APPL and their businesses are quite different below the surface. NOK is about high volume APPLE is high margin.
When NOK post's + EPS, the floodgates open. We are close enough to $5 by earnings, expect the fund Managers to move in. Elop has been paying his duesthe last 2 years setting this up. The Harvest will be over the next 5 years, and some people still won't get it.
The fact is, failure was built into this stock for last year and the market made sure they got what they wanted. GOLDEN CROSS has appeared and all tha is left is to hang on.
This is text book predictable.
You are correct. Not fair to compare Nokia and Apple. Hard to do as they are very different financially as well as motivationally. Apple cannot fight in the low end, but nokia can fight in the high-end.
There are some interested positives, but as of today and right now, this thing is ahead of itself.
How do you define "success"? That's a bit vague. 10M Lumia smartphones sold? Positive operating earnings in Q4? If Nokia's Lumia smartphones and W8 become firmly entrenched as a #3 eco-system (say goodbye to RIM) Nokia has a long way to run. Nokia is trading on anticipation that progress continues with their turnaround and W8 transition. Ultimate success won't be achieved until Nokia returns to double digits - $10+.
Points can be argued back and forth. Maybe the stock is fairly valued, maybe it isn't. Maybe they are holding it down and accumulating. Maybe sales numbers will be huge, maybe they will just be good.
Investors can go out and see for themselves, the lumia 920 is in the top 3 if not the best phone out overall. Now if you accept that, then one argues that a experienced company like Nokia takes that superiority and translates it into the dominant phone in the market eventually.
On the reverse you can go out and compare and say that the phone is not one of the best out or not even in the top 3. It is a matter of opinion, I personally believe Lumia 920 is the best phone out for the price. The great thing is people can go compare and look for themselves and then after gauge if they think a company like Nokia can translate that into sales.
The biggest point here is what is the quality of the Lumia 920? Is it the best? Is it in the top? The answer looks to be a clear yes from users.
If there is a supply problem ( which I think stems just from greater demand then anticipated ) it can be fixed. If it is the best phone, with marketing, it becomes the dominant phone in the marketplace. With the patent portfolio and cash reserves Nokia is insanely safe compared to the potential. Nokia is not RIMM stock hoping the phone debut will be a success, it already is.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The only thing that is priced in is the fact that NOK is not going bankrupt and might make it back into the handset game. NSN right now is worth $4.00pps. Patents are worth $8.00 pps. maps $2.00pps. Once the market figures out these divisions will not be sold at fire sale prices their value will then be added to the handset division and we will be up a long ways from here.
Your numbers are from somewhere in fantasy land. Also, you think the market is stupid and does not know what Nokia is worth? The market is pricing nokia for success, hence my title.
I do agree with you on one thing, Nokia is not going bankrupt. As for the real success of these phones, we will all see if the market got ahead of itself or not very soon.