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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • n59218 n59218 Jan 10, 2013 8:24 PM Flag

    Here is why MSFT takes out NOK for at least 6.5-7pps range

    NOK-Long-friends: If you read a dozen posts here tonight, let
    this be at least one of them... it will be time worth spent.

    Disclaimer: I've no inside knowledge as to what is going on
    near Helsinki or Redmond currently. The following is my pure
    speculation, based on my analysis, logic and extrapolation of
    historical events. Please do your thorough DD of course.

    Today NOK pps/vol action issued a generational-bottom range-
    breakout signal in my models and gave the ultimate-go-ahead to
    the potential- would-be-acquirer, that their deal would be
    immediately accretive to their bottom line. 500%-volume rise
    does not happen by mere chance or by one PR event. The dynamics
    for a superb rise ahead were well entrenched in the past six
    month's fundamentals. Now its all clear, green-signal for MSFT
    to make a move and spread their connectivity-ambitions and
    empire worldwide.

    In my recent Europe and Asia visits, what I found out on the
    ground-floor is so important, yet no one mentions it much in
    the US: The market for the cheaper and MSFT-related
    smartphones and familiar Nokia brand over there, is generally
    estimated to be 2-times the present volume, in the next of
    couple years. That number is too low and off by at-least 75%
    IMHO: head-of-the household keeps (and can afford) only 1
    super-costly IPhone around, but many nokias linger around the
    rest of the family members. The ratio is 1 to 4 in reality and
    is only going to increase as the middle-class mushrooms and the
    prosperity level rises in China and India. With the AAPL's
    closed-OS (and App- Store) model, they would prefer open MSFT-
    NOK model any day, especially when the functionality-delta is
    decreasing and nokias' are so cheap.

    W.r.t. buyout: Note what a premium MSFT gave to Skype. Do you
    think that with the prospect of 3B humanity connection in the
    next 5 years with NOK, MSFT would let them be independent
    merely for 20B chump-change? No way in the world IMHO. Now,
    all the big-boys will load-up first, and when the pps is around
    5.50 they'll upgrade it. MSFT boys know this, that longer they
    wait now, more they'll have to fish-out to sweeten the offer
    for all shareholders. Hence, it's in their best interests to
    make a quick move. See this happen much sooner than any of us
    can imagine. Today was the first signal. Enjoy the beautiful
    ramp-up ahead! Please give your thumbs-up if you agree with the
    above sentiments. Thanks in advance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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