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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • vlad2vlad vlad2vlad Jan 11, 2013 10:02 PM Flag

    -- I'm Seeing $7

    In the next 2 months we should print $7. We have real numbers behind us and profitability as well. That can't be changed or fudged by the likes of Goldman, the media or Cramer which means they'll finally join us and go very long.

    That means lots of upgrades and lots of institutions buying. We're at $4.70 now after being up $1 in just 2 days and I'd be shocked if we're not seeing in under 60 days - come mid-March or possibly even sooner. Lots of developments on the way and killer new phones and a beautiful tablet.

    All will add real value to the pps. I'm now holding some 2014 $5 calls which I'll probably let ride until at least summer. Good luck, I'm looking at Zynga now and hope to find a couple more Nokia type stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Possible, however a new catalyst is needed. The positive earnings estimate and sales that lagged (supply issues) and will improve Q1 are now priced in to the range $4.5-$5.5 (traslates to $.3-$.4 net earnings) The trade show in Feb will unveil the slicker Catwalk? this cat will be a game changer and a propelling catalyst, all bets are off in the event of a hostile takeover. Cook went to China to find a partner for this deal. Apple can use patents, maps and NSN, the Chinese can use the manufacturing, research and distribution. A perfect marriage (sorry for the oxymoron)

      Sentiment: Hold

    • 3rd world countries are just getting into smart phones. As their economies grow, smart phones are something that everyone would own. Students, pesants, fishermen, armiy/navy/airforce and even grandmas and pas!.
      if you are a stock researcher, would you please tell me what you think of TLAB. The stock price (2.20) seem to be lower than their cash/share and book value.

      • 1 Reply to aruledwin
      • Who are you asking, it's impossible to tell when the thread gets this long?

        It's hard to tell, research takes a few days to a few weeks and its constantly ongoing. I read up on Nokia a few times per day. But tlabs sounds interesting I'll give it a quick look and see if I notice anything pro or con.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I wouldn't compare lumias to Samsung android sales. It took android a good three years to get where it is plus there was a major void given ios only catered to high margin products. Honestly, I think it will take Microsoft and Nokia 1-2 more upgrade cycles to have that high end blockbuster hit like the S3. With that said I think Asha and Lumia 620 will sell tons to price conscious consumers.

      • 2 Replies to daredevil_2010
      • I don't think so. The 920 is already it. The reason it isn't up there among the top phones in terms of sales is because of the supply shortage. Once they put the phones in shops in numbers, the sales will rocket. There's a lot of pent up demand. There's a lot of untapped demand because Nokia has not been shouting loud about the phones advantages - I imagine because of the supply constraints and/or because they want to be conservative with costs, given the critical situation they were in. Whatever the reasons, I think they are playing this game really well.

        Someone said that Nokia still need another generation to get to the real blockbuster phone. I don't agree - I think the 920 is it. It is way better than any other phone. It makes the other look old fashioned and clunky. It looks and feels great. All these things, and at the same time, it is radically different. This is a great set of characteristics for a new product. Only Apple have done this kind of thing in recent years, and they did it in a bigger and more revolutionary way. But right now, Nokia is doing it better than anybody with their Lumia phones and in particular, the 920.

      • Nokia has some clear advantages. They are a preferred partner with windows where Samsung was on a level playing field with android. They have seriously large mindshare in India, china and Europe something Samsung never had. They have deep financing and a bug advantage in design and innovation - something Samsung still doesn't have. They have a history and reputation for building quality and not cheap plastic junk. Something Samsung doesn't have to this day. They have the largest in house manufacturing and supply chain - nobody has that, not even Apple. And finally - they have an exclusive contract to offer their flagship phone to over 1 billion Chinese customers for FREE, something Samsung or apple has ever had.

        Make no mistake, Nokia can go to 7 plus million flagships per quarter in the next 2 quarters and if they release a really cool flagship which I think they will by march-April they can literally overtake Samsung. Samsung has a pricing advantage but that's it. They build cheap plastic copy cat phones. If Nokia innovates and builds something nice and quality they will kill Samsung in 2 quarters flat.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • vlad2vlad: Woke up early this a.m. and could not get back to sleep, probably due to Nok excitement these past two days. Picked up my IPad and started thru the messages on the Nok comments. Without a doubt You are way up there on cogent analysis of the Nokia stock situation.
      There are several on this board that make a lot of sense, but for now you are very much our best cheerleader.
      Keep up the good work.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tjmils1933
      • Thanks man. Cheerleader I don't like cause too many mindless pumpers cheerlead. I'm a realist and so far everything I've said Nokia can do they did and they've hit my price targets too. I only missed on my sales numbers but that's still pretty good. As you may know I've only invested using options which you lose it all if you're wrong especially since I always bought out of the money options. So I clearly put my money where my mouth is and I do it all ahead of any move so my positions are real. Thanks and good luck.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • indeed - all the pieces are in the puzzle now

      it is just a matter of somebody turning this puzle-board around so everybody can see the (big) picture

      hopefully elop will turn the board around with a bang, by both announcing great numbers and burning some shorts in the process..

      cuz i looooove the smell of roasting shorts.. with a glass of chianti..

      • 1 Reply to asdfhsdkjfh342
      • I firmly believe Elop saved something for the CC. Otherwise why pre announce good news when the CC is only 2 weeks away. That makes no sense and I don't think I've ever seen it. The stock price was taking a hit from the tax raid but they could have just released a PR saying the tax was paid and it was an overreaction. So why give out the surprise from the earnings announcement unless it serves a different purpose (like a buyout) or you have something even bigger for the CC.

        So personally I think the real numbers are gonna be bigger. At least 6 million for the Lumias although I thought there was no way they could have been under 7 million. If that's the case then what they'll get is 2 rallies as shorts will pile back on next week before the CC thinking the rally is overdone. It would be a shrewd move although I don't see Elop being shrewd but who knows.

        Or a 3rd possibility - they'll have a surprise nobody expects. I'm good with any positive surprises. I just hope they saved something for the CC.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • If Nokia hits their targets and does a few key things like spin off NSN for a cool $5 Billion, then their pps can hit $20 this year. They just need one good flagship to get their margins up while greatly increasing revenues (look at what the galaxy III did for Samsung) and the rest is cost cutting (that's 95% done) and diversifying their product mix to reach the whole globe at all price points (done) and release a successful tablet and phablet (done deal just needs to be released).

      As one can see, Nokia is prepped and ready to really take off. Most here dream of seeing $6 so they can sell. I see $6 as the ground floor where most finally realize what we already know: Nokia is a world contender and in a couple quarters it will take it crown back from the pretender, Samsung. If anyone can't imagine Nokia being $20 (or more) just take a look at what Starbucks did with some cost cutting an a little change in their product mix: they went from $7 to $50 in 18 months and trust me, just one successful flagship phone can bring in enough massive revenues and profits to make Starbucks look like Nokia in 2012.

      Nokia: Buy some for now - Hold some for "Ever".

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to vlad2vlad
      • Nokia's success is ultimately tied to the fortunes of WP8, which I personally think is a good OS capable of giving iOS or Android a run for it's money in terms of features and innovation. While many people don't like Windows 8 OS for desktop and laptops (especially those without touch screens), it does work extremely well for smartphones and tablets, and Nokia will soon have an opportunity to field a tablet that could generate serious consumer interest, especially if it entails their Pureview Camera technology and wireless charging. In fact, I'd say Win 8 tablets have an excellent chance of capturing the bulk of the tablet market, and compete well even against the iPAD. Google is weakest here, even with something like the Nexus 7, which is a great piece of engineering and good value, but doesn't have the ability to integrate with Windows based PC's or laptops versus mobile devices that rely on a Microsoft based OS...

        As for NSN, I don't see any need for it to be sold now that it's earning money. It's an essential part of the Microsoft ecosystem family, as is Nokia maps. I would argue that Nokia is in many respects something that Microsoft should strongly consider acquiring in whole, since it would give them strong footing in terms of patents and some of the best mobile hardware around. The only negative is that other OEM's might assume that Microsoft wants to work against them. I'm still not convinced that Google can manage to run Motorola Mobility without alienating their own OEM partners. They did need the patents, but you can see that Samsung is keeping a foot in the door with Microsoft, by producing devices for both platforms. It would be nice if Nokia could do the same thing as well, but it can't, as it's bound to Microsoft by the deal signed to provide income support. Microsoft may eventually swallow Nokia, and keep only the parts that it needs, while selling the rest. The good thing for Nokia investors is that the buying price is going to be significantly higher than the current stock price, regardless.

        Then there's that f---king US Republican dominated Congress, which could easily disrupt and crash the markets...but we'll leave that issue for another time ;o)

        Sentiment: Strong Buy (Rocket to the Moon)

      • Mea Culpa: Starbucks went from $7 to $40 in about 18 months. Nokia can go from $4 to $20 in under 12 months. The pieces and talent are all in place - now we need an accelerant and execution. The accelerant should come in the next couple months.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Goldman Sach will probably up their price target to $3 from $2

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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