He said in late november that Nokia-W8 was going to fail. He said it again later, and again a few days ago, when Nokia gave investors much better estimates than expected. But for him those were not good news at all, and he has a point, although it might seem pointless to present investors (I do not know if he gets this):
"If we measure by market share, Nokia had 29% market share when the new strategy was announced (february 2011, when NOK price was around $9). This measure accounts for market growth. So today, Symbian based smartphones only account for 1% of global sales, and Nokia therefore has attempted to transition the 28% of its smartphone customers it had using Symbian to Windows Phone. And now the successfull transition results in 2% market share for Lumia in Q4 and 26% of Nokia loyal smartphone user market share gifted to rivals, in scaring away loyal Nokia users to Android, iOS, Blackberry, bada and others. Now the failure rate of Elop's strategy is a mindboggling 93%. Yes, only 7% of Nokia's attempts to lure Symbian customers to Lumia has succeeded. Out of every 14 attempts to migrate a customer from Symbian to Windows Phone, 13 have run away. Only one in 14 attempts to transition to Lumia has succeeded. You call this strategy good, and worth pursuing?"
Now, I guess Tomi´s strategy (the most influential blogger according to Forbes) is the following: Keep your market share! Keep Symbian! W8 will be a failure! (sure! I guess W7 was also a failure at 600 million licenses)...and then he asks, is it worth pursuing?
I would love to hear from you, as investors, answering his question.
- if we measure by the amount of nok related posts/day mom the trading wizard on this very board produces the largest amuont of commentary in the world on nokia..
- if we measure by blog popularity maybe the kardashians have higher throughput on their blogs than tomi..
but.. what do the nr of comments or the blog throughput have to do with how nok stock evolves??
i did read some of tomi's blogs and some were quite insightful
his blog in fact slowed me go buy nok almost 6 months ago.. so i lost about a 20cent up (which at that time was a good amount)
so the fact that he has something to say doesn't mean we need to believe it
i respect everybody's opinion together with my freedom of choice
also when thinking about a news source pls look at the bias and *always* follow the $$
in tomi's case the bias is obvious and the $$ seem to point to waterloo
history teaches us that many great leaders have met their nemesis at waterloo - it's tomi's turn now to follow in their historical (failing) steps
please extend him our best wishes and let's revisit this in 6 months.. by then i'm sure tomi will have time for plenty of new and even more insightful revelations...
I did the opposite, I read tomi's blog 6 months ago and was sure he was wrong and felt comfortable enough to buy Nokia options and it proved correct.
Tomi is a strategy guy but in strategy, like in marketing, there is a good word to know: Equifinality. There are more roads to the same end. I looked at Nokia from a valuation and growth perspective, something Tomi knows nothing about. He thinks Windows 8 will fail but there are varying degrees of failure. Given Nokia already sold 4.4 million without the 620 and without 3 Billion people (china and India) I'd say windows 8 is already a success. Maybe his idea of success is something else.
In my book, from the perspective of an analyst, there is little doubt that windows 8 and Lumias will be successful in 2013. The numbers to prove it are already there. Tomi I bet was a marketing type which inherently lack logic, mathematical logic which one needs for fundamental analysis. That said, I'm happy to announce that thus far, Tomi has been dead wrong about Nokia as proved by my 570% return in my Nokia investment in just a short 5 months all the while this "expert" was saying sell Nokia. He was dead wrong then and he's dead wrong now. So much for influential.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Tomi Ahonen who? "Most respected mobile trend's oracle"- who says that? Who gives as #$%$ of what he has to say. Please let the fact says for itself- without Elop, Nokia is already gone. That is the only fact you can take to the bank with.
This issue was discussed numerous times when WP7.0 and WP7.5 came out.
Nokia board already decided Symbian is not going to be cost and feature competitive even before Elop was hired. The issue 2 years was whether to adopt Android or WP or some other strategy, the decision was made to adopt WP. Nokia already saw the worst and now it is going to see better days.
There is really little to re-examine an old decision. The issue now is whether WP will gain more traction, and what Nokia can do to add value to the smartphone.
"(the most influential blogger according to Forbes)" LOL,
This does not equate to most intelligent blogger, or most un-biased blogger or most anything blogger for that matter.
It means he has an opinion. You do know what they say about opinions right??
Opinions are like aholes, EVERYONE has one.
There you go, glad I could help you... LOL
In my opinion this guy is an overrated clown. He seems to spew bitterness and due to this he can only see the dark side of things. lumia is gaining traction. Lumia will gain much more traction in Q1 and thereafter. Nokia will be cash flow positive and profitable for 2013. Pretty good considering Apple is killing everyone else but Samsung.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think being an ex-employee of the company he's critizing for not executing doesn't make him a reliable source. Nokia still has a long a way to go for sure, but is moving, in my opinion, in the rigth direction. If all the comments about the Lumina being such a good product are true, then Nokia shareholders will have an enjoyable ride the next years.
"Now, I guess Tomi´s strategy (the most influential blogger according to Forbes) is the following: Keep your market share! Keep Symbian! W8 will be a failure! (sure! I guess W7 was also a failure at 600 million licenses)...and then he asks, is it worth pursuing? "
The guy is a joke, a basher and a good for nothing otherwise would not be writing a blog like he is and have so much time on his hands to bash Nokia. Imagine worked for Nokia and now runs a pathetic blog and have not seen him disclosing who pays his bills, consulting? Yeah right? More like Insulting the backer's competition and live off that.
Tomi has been the most vocal Elop critic on the planet. Symbian was failing and NOK had to come up with an operating system. One billion per year from MSFT and the marketing clout of MSFT makes a lot of sense. The alternatives were much worse. Tomi has been wrong on this for a long time and needs to move on.
STOP to think about Tomi's assertion in the article above. Tomi has blogged himself that the migration from Symbian to Win8 is a false equivalence... ON HIS OWN BLOG.
He states himself that the vast majority of the Symbian users will likely migrate to Asha, as the costs and features of the two platforms are essentially the same.
And does it suprise anyone that Tomi's group is now doing consulting work for RIM?? Wonder if he has an agenda?
I agree and he needs to move on. It is OK being critical, but once things starting turning around like it is now for nok, he should give elop his due credit and go away. Hey, I was elop's nightmare on this board, but I see how far nok has come along. I give elop credit for giving his brilliant engineers the freedom to keep innovating and designing. Just look at the no of lumias models they have produced in such a short period of time while innovating even in the feature phone arena, like the new asha. Isn't the purpose of the new ashas to capture market lost by symbian phones? so what is his problem now??