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Nokia Corporation Message Board

  • rawdy Jan 17, 2013 11:25 AM Flag

    Q1- 2013 Estimates

    Now that we all know break even or even a possible profit is certain, let’s discuss about Q1- 2013 numbers while NOK is taking a short rest until next rally on 24th @ 1.00 PM Finland, 6.00 AM US EST.

    Wanted to discuss just the Lumias as a major driver for Q1, assuming NSN, Navteq, Patents, royalties, Asha.. etc. will contribute additional profits.

    What is your target sale numbers for Lumia in Q1 -2013? Sales $? Net Profit? Stock Price?
    Serious inputs only

    Things to consider in your calculation-
    - Excluding China, Nokia sold 4.4M Lumias in Q4 -2012 and numbers are rapidly growing as awareness is growing.
    - Huge door of 700M customer base just opened in China. 2.5M pre-orders officially recorded in 2-weeks and Chinese New Year is coming.
    - Taking off 620 & 920 in India.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • According to a leak coming from Nokia’s Beijing factory (its largest factory) the maximum production capacity is 2,000,000 Lumia devices per month; of which only 600K are Lumia 920s.
      Nokia’s biggest factory in Beijing can only produce 2 million Windows Phones per month, consisting of 20,000 Nokia Lumia 920’s per day, 25,000 Lumia 820s and 20,000 Lumia 620.
      . However those numbers really aren’t too bad; assuming that all Lumia 920s produced have been sold (and as far as we’ve seen that looks like the case); and also assuming that no production had started until after the Lumia 920 announcement (Sept. 5th-4 months ago) then accordingly there should have been 2.4 Million Lumia 920s made from the Beijing factory alone.
      Besides the Beijing factory Nokia has another 7 global factories, working on the crazy assumption that all these factories can only work at an average of 25% the efficiency of the Beijing factory (which would mean 500K Lumias, 150K of which would be 920s) = 150,000*7= 1,050,000 Lumia 920 devices. Adding up the 2.4 million from the Beijing and the 1.05 from the rest of the world we get 3.45 Million Lumia 920s (and 5.5 Million lumia total-920+820+620); of course that’s all on the bare minimum assumption that production only started after the launch event, and that all the global factories are only working at 25% the efficiency of the Beijing factory. Suddenly that 7 Million number doesn’t sound too far fetched does it?
      Also soon the Vietnam factory will open up (August 2013)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to gooseg52
      • Meaning max production of Lumia 920 is 3.45 million units per month? Awful low.
        That means 10 million per quarter is max sale that Nokia can have of Lumia 920 until new factories open up? Further reading from this thread puts at best minimal operation of Vietnam factory starting end of summer, so I am a little stunned of this low capacity.

        Upside potential will not be there beyond 10 M units... Bummer.
        Need to outsource some production like pronto, no, yesterday!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • "End of April / 2012, the company officially launched the project plant in the VSIP Bac Ninh Industrial Zone with an area of ​​17 hectares, the initial investment of around 200 million euros. It is expected early 2013 the plant will go into operation."

        Where do you get Aug 2013?

        Google this and translate(The ictnews link photo is tagged May):
        Nokia Bán trụ sở chính không ảnh hưởng đến nhà máy tại Bắc Ninh

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • carbryce Jan 17, 2013 1:36 PM Flag

      Conservatively I think it will be 10 million Lumia's sold if not up to 14.

      Besides being in the B, I and the C of the BRIC countries this Q, which unto it self is enormous, the entire Lumia line-up will be available not to mention older 7.5 devices, which are still being made (elop said china and Mexico just launched one) will be getting a huge OS upgrade in 7.8 and selling for an even better price pint then the 620.

      in other words all cylinders are firing up and this baby is going to go through the roof!!!

    • 700 million consumers in china? Try more like 1.2 or 1.3 BILLION. China Mobile is 700 million. China Unicom is about 300 million and China Telecom is at least 200 million. And they're ALL offering the 920 for free. And the 620 has now landed.

      Just with china alone we have to assume another 3 million Lumias. Q1 could really be a huge surprise that pops the stock to the next level. I truly hope they have the guts to guide upwards although they'll probably guide flat.

      Did I mention Chinese "Christmas" season is also in Q1? Lets hope Elop has enough volume.

      Then there's another cool Billion in India, buying the 920 and the 620, but let's not talk about that.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • In China is sold alone 2,5 million of lumia 920 and 820
      we could expect more that 2 million more to be sold trough 1q only in China that is 4,5 million only in China, without lumia 620....
      Lumia is hit and they can sold 5 million lumia 620 world wide
      and 3-4 million of lumias 920 and 820 world wide that is around 12 million lumias in 1q :)

      without asha phones......

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Google trends showing similiar interest as in december wich is remarkable. So lets say they can do 4m + 3m in China = 7m.
      Asha also staying strong (its a nice phone too IMO) at 8m.

    • I feel that Elop must be smart enough to not let the whole cat out of the bag during the pre earnings release. At least I hope. He might have been a bit desperate seeing the big drop in pps.

      But assuming he let most of the positive information out our best hope is positive guidance. Here I think he needs to hold a balance between not letting shareholders down and maintaining credibility for guidance.

      I think given the recent developments in smartphone sales and introduction of product in major new markets he can afford to be upbeat for guidance. At least I hope he's not too cautious as much as he needs to be for future credibility.

      My 2 cents.

      • 2 Replies to sxr71
      • Good points. I think if elop solves the supply constraint issues, he can give good guidance going forward, but if he sees lingering problem with production and delivery of the high demand, he is going to be reserved in his optimism and may guide conservatively, imo. Solve the supply problem and meet the huge demand and we are off to the races and we will kick the bloody shorts from here to He???LL, LOL.

      • Elop has been upbeat for the past 3 months even before WP8 was released. Which leads me to believe he has a very nice surprise for us share holders . Imo I think Nokia will show more cash on hand than we expect. They have done some major cost saving moves and sold enough high margin phones which will bank more money than Wall Street is expecting.

        So getting back to your question about Q1-2013 estimate. Elop will down play Q1 because seasonality and competitive environment but we as invester must look at cash on hand and impact of China Mobile and India which will give us a pretty good guidance going foward.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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