What margin will they have to make on each device?
How much will the writedown on their building (which will be way down next quarter) effect their bottom line?
Instead you ask walmart clerks how many phones they have sold.
You do this because you eat high fructose corn syrup from monsanto genetically modified ceops.
And that has consequences.
Not as many as you think. The revenue from here maps is one thing on the balance sheet and the IP for that technology from Microsoft is separate on the balance sheet. Look up something in bing like a Verizon Store. Look at the bottom of the map and you see Nokia. All of their searches are generating income. The maps are used at Amazon, Facebook and all Oracles clients in the cloud. People are quoting wrong figures on the here income because they do not know about IP revenue from Microsoft. That is also separate from the revenue Microsoft pays Nokia for each phone that they subsidize. It is also separate from the ad & app revenue from all the phones. Then you have NSN. Then you have Patent Income. This is like a little mutual fund here. They do not have to sell as many phone as you might think.
Here are some numbers to consider. To my knowledge Elop mentioned 30% gross profit on smart phones.
Nokia sells 10,000,000 Lumia phones this quarter x $300 average.
That would be $900,000,000 in Lumia profits.
Don't think we'll get to 10M Lumia until Q3 - based on Elop's guidance. If we do, the stock will jump to $6 or $7. That's the key success factor for NOK, getting to 10 million Lumias, the rest (like profits) will take care of itself when we achieve critical mass.
q1 '13 smartphone gross margin 20.7%. (maybe this go up 50% this qtr.?)
smart dev. asp € 193 ($248). not likely to stay this high. went up from q4 '12 to q1 '13 due to big increase in asp on 500k symbian phone.
so 18 mio. phones sold = $924,048,000
your figure much nicer.
A lot. With all the cheap components they are using, I think they may make pretty good margin. Pretty good but not enough because they have to sell a whole lot. Right now, it's not popular enough to turn around in America. In asia, they may recover some but not a total reversal to capture lost shares.
Given that info, they will improve...but not enough. I'd continue to listen to the sales figure or just give it an estimated sales increase and make judgements from there.
I don't think it's this year, probably in late 2014. buy accordingly.