Seems clear to me that there is only one sensical path forward and that perhaps this path was initiated in late July. Elop, who is by far the most logical choice (leads a large complex company, formerly headed Microsoft Office products division, turnaround of Nokia, MSFT close relationship with Nokia), will assume the helm at Microsoft but only after Microsoft buys out Nokia at a price agreeable to Nokia's Board of Directors. My guess is the total price for the entire Nokia enterprise, the whole kit and kaboodle, will be near $15-$20/share. NSN will thereafter be spun off or sold by Microsoft to Cisco or the like. All of this will be coordinated by Steve Ballmer who will thereby leave the company he cares most about in experienced stable hands. With Elop at the helm of Microsoft/Nokia, the combination will rise to the top. That's my prediction and I'll stick to it! Exciting and positive times for Nokia and Nokia shareholders ahead.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If Elop is at the helm of Microsoft, it is possible that Nokia would be bought as a subsidiary but would remain independent of Microsoft in what they do. Reminds me of the company that my wife gets the hot sauce that I use "Ring of Fire". Had gone to Myrtle Beach and stopped in at one of the hot sauce shops, tasted this one that had a different label on it, but it tasted just like what I use. When I spoke to the owner of the company, told him that it was very interesting that I found another hot sauce under a different label that tasted exactly like what his company made. He told me, his company also makes that hot sauce under a different label because what they found, is that under the label of "Ring of Fire", in Texas, no one was buying it. They came up with a different label for the Texas demographic. He said under this different label, his hot sauce was now selling like hot cakes in Texas. The point of that is, if Nokia were bought by Microsoft, I expect that perhaps the sales of Lumia phones may drop off because of having a Microsoft label on it, must like what Microsoft experienced with their tablets, having another name of them, folks would buy. It doesnt make sense to damage the Lumia or Asha brands that Nokia puts out just because folks think Nokia needs to be bought resulting in a rebranding of the vendor name. Doubt if I would have bought a Microsoft phone, would have probably bought another vendor, but I would not have bought a Microsoft phone.
I will only comment on the Cisco speculation, there are no American companies in the wireless telecom equipment market and Cisco is having a hard time finding a way to grow. With the Chinese protecting their own telecom makers and Europe having the remaining three world players makes a lot of sense for Cisco to acquire NSN.
Next two Cicso acquisitons:
1-NSN from Nokia, before the ink is dry from the recent buyout. May offer $5-8/share to NOK shareholders.
2-Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT). New wireless program, one of its kind.
Rumor: John Chambers really #$%$ off with its stale growth. Need new ventures to breathe in new life and revenues.
September is going to be exciting!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I like your unshakeable and boundless optimism but on the other hand, it reminds my often about this "enthusiastic exuberance" from fall 2012, (W8/WP8 and L920 introduction) and "fantastic" predictions of NOK inevitably reaching pps $20 - $30 by the end of 2012. But that was in 2012, hopefully you will be right in 2013. (-;
Really get off the drugs.
Look the evil empire x the xbox has lost billions in the last few yrs going after the consumer. This is the reason why jabba of redmond was forced out, along with more failed m&a then hpq. So I think the new
ceo will 86 wp8 as they can't compete against android and ios. Get real the hedge fund behind this and heading
the ceo selection group, wants to do a flip and they won't take any losing divisions. So buying money losing
nok buring cash and down to less then a yr of it left and a ceo that has lost 60% is the last firm and guy
on earth the hedge fund guys would go near.
Net net this change is very bad news for nok it insures the evil empire will not be being bought out by the evil
empire and will have chosen a sinking ship as they will be giving up on evil ware phone os as it becomes more
clear that the platform is never going to hit critical mass. They're not going to keep writing big checks to nok
and wp8 developers hoping for the impossible. No, the only hope the evil empire has it to defend the enterprize
mkt with dell doing 1% margins and hoping that cio's won't wake up one day and say I can get a huge cost
save bonus dumping office for free openoffice and then I can dump windows as everyone has an android
tablet and/or phone. More likely they will invest in a private rimm as black berry is still big in the government
and large corp very much so in the 3rd world. The evil empire will need every free dime to try to stay ahead of amazon's cloud andrush out a 9th
failed attempt at an OS to try to convince all those xp systems to upgrade to, less they get ported to linux.
As to NSN well just look how the communist china 4g projects where let to almost exclusively communist
chinese telcos. The developed world has deployed 4g/lte so the mkt as such is the 3rd world which is about
to have a '97 like financial melt down now that the fed's near free money is stopping. Siemens must have
laughed all the way to the bank on their sale.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I strongly agree with you. Not only will they get Nokia, but they will get an interim CEO who is apt at a corner where MSFT is at its weakest and need all the experience it can get. Not one would argue that MSFT , for one reason or another, is in this state because of its too little too late focus on Mobile . By this time next year, Nokia would already have long produce and market a whole series of Msft product, and the only one doing so, securing about 10 % of the market for consumers at the mid range and probably 75 % for the business market , again an Elop area of expertise (if Delta dea l is anything to go by).
Now why I use the word Interim CEO is because the board need to take in consideration the longer term focus of MSFT, but they need to get things sort out fast, so this is an interim measure. To me though, I felt the Ballmer exit is actually planned by himself, and Eop already knew they when they talk about acquiring Nok. The idea thus was for Elop to carry on Ballmer shoes since he know that area of business extremely well and it now the most important area of focus for Msft.
Msft is a huge company with lots of varying interest. Just like Nokia once upon a time and Elop knows it only too well. But now they really need to secure their area of vital interest, that is the 99 % of the business world giving them all the revenue , other than x Box of course. While while x Box is secure, Msft need to reinforce the mobile world immediately because all business right now need an integrated mobile system attached to this business, Nokia is best suited to offer that.
Taking over Nokia is an inexpensive venture for Msft, Even if Msft were to offer $15, given Nok assets, they will likely get it only for $3. I am however wondering if the Europeans will approve however.