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Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • bosox_pats bosox_pats Oct 16, 2013 6:04 AM Flag

    No pre-announcement from ARP or ATLS after APL

    Obviously the pre-announcement from APL lowering guidance for 3Q and second half of 2014 put a dent in the Atlas entities yesterday. The good news for APL is they left 2014 guidance unchanged. Furthermore, at least ARP and ATLS did not revise guidance following APL. ARP's guidance is $2.35+ for 2013 and ATLS is $1.75 - $2.00. If ATLS hits the mid-point that implies $1.10 of 2nd half distributions and ARP must deliver $1.30 to hit the $2.35.

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    • Much of the increase in income from the many of the big wells did
      not hit until mid-way through the 3rd quarter. Given oil production growth as a
      percentage of mix is increasing with prices over $100 a barrel, and NG prices above
      $3.50 for our marginal and unhedged production of these monster wells, ARP should
      have a great 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter will be even better if they execute.

      The 4th quarter should be at .80 cents with a .68 cent distribution.
      This would put us at a 1.17 ratio which is healthy.
      With that kind of coverage they actually have extra funds to increase drilling or reduce the

      As important will be the public LP raise, and we are looking for at least $150 million.
      And updates on drilling and net production rates...I'd like to see a 280 mmcf per day
      exit rate equivalent for the 3rd quarter and 300 for the 4th quarter.

      I think ARP had a distribution coverage of .65 in the second quarter. I would expect
      to see .75 for the 3rd quarter...If so, a .65 cent distribution will be met.

    • Well, we'll see.

      Keep in mind that Dubay is running APL and he seems to be a straight shooter and I would expect he'd pre-announce bad news.

      Cohen is much more likely to hold out hope.

      Its very disappointing to hear that the acquisition isn't going well. Its not a huge surprise but given we hired a senior executive just to oversee it you have to wonder if that was the best hire.

      I think that perhaps some "Consultant" sold someone on the idea that we needed (we meaning Atlas in general) to "geographically diversify to lessen risk" or some other BS like that. We should continue to add small bolt on acquisitions in geographies we know.

      I don't need to hear ATLS or ARP or APL mentioned on CNBC or Fast Trading or whatever - I just want us to keep growing DCF in a relatively steady rate. Building organizations and expertise takes time and we seem to have lost focus this year IMO.

    • If ARP doesn't announce anything in the next 2 days we should be OK. APL will likely increase by 1 cent just to keep increasing the distribution.

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