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China Crescent Enterprises, Inc. Message Board

  • fireside112000 fireside112000 Apr 8, 2010 3:03 PM Flag

    Any guesses for # outstanding shares?

    My guess is 300,000,000+

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    • chitowndale Apr 9, 2010 10:56 AM Flag

      Despite all of the dire predictions of massive dilution of CCTR stock, do you or any of the "Sky is Falling: Chicken Littles have a CLUE as to how much CCTR stock has been traded since the last 10-K report?

      Bey not. As of 9.30.2009 there were 124 million shares issued.

      Since that time, 1 billion 558 million shares have been traded as of yesterday's close.

      Now I seriously doubt that too many new shares have been issued when:
      1) well more than half of the shares traded since then have been shorted stocks. Some Days, as much as 80% of the shares traded were shorted stock. So it would not be a wild guess that at least 1.2 of that 1.558 billion shares traded were shorts. Assuming that the number of longs would be about 779 million shares.
      2) Given that assumption, predictions of 600 million shares on the market are patently ridiculous.
      3) A stock that sells for less than 5 cents gets a lot of turnover. I personally have bought and sold well over 200,000 shares of this stock and currently hold only 46,500 shares.
      Michael Houri owns 15.7 million shares. He purchased 1.7 million of those in Feb, but we don't know if those were newly issued shares of bought in the market.
      Other CCTR insiders have sold about .04% of outstanding stock (based upon the 124 million figure) each trading day during Oct-Nov and .025% each trading day for the remaining months.
      That works out to 272.8 million shares for Oct-Nov and 341 million for Dec-Mar.
      So insiders have sold appx 614 million shares since the last report.
      Taken away from the estimated 779 million longs transacted during that period, that leaves 165 million long shares traded by non insiders.
      With a pool of 124 million shares at the beginning, that would mean a maximum of 41 million new shares at best.
      40 We all know that not all transactions to buy stock can't possibly be all new issued shares so the likely hood is that at best half of those could be new stock. That would be about 20 million.

      So based upon REAL transactions executed. at most there will turn out to be about 150 million shares issued in total.

      The only disclaimer I will make is that this is based upon the number of shorts estimated and I am too lazy to tote up the daily totals of shorts for each day since Sept 1, 2009.

      If it turns out that the first couple of months of that period had a much lower percentage of shorts than 50%, then my figures will be too low.

      BUT, they won't be much to low, since I din;t believe that the person to person buy-sell of this stock is as low as I have estimated here to be ultra conservative.

      So I am willing to bet that the number of stocks in the market is closer to my 150 million than to your 224 million. So with that disclaimer, my high end number would be less than 187 million but I still believe that the 150 million estimate is best.
      In less than a week we will know and if you are right I will congratulate you, while if I am right I will eat a great steak dinner since if my figure is right the stock will go up much more and will pay for that dinner many times over.

    • 700mil

    • My guess is your mother owne 300,000,000 hahaha

    • I'll guess 224 million shares