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Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Message Board

  • yo_roe yo_roe Jul 13, 2009 10:39 AM Flag

    Rise into Earnings - REDU

    After Q1, beginning in April, we rose from low $7's to high $9's, then popped with the ernings surprise. High volume as earnings approached. I'm convinced that there were leaks, or that it was difficult for SKX to control Q1 performance information...

    Anyway, I'm watching for the same thing in Q2. If PPS starts to drop, it may be a good idea to get out. If we start to rise into earnings - SKX is a Buy.

    The tricky thing about Q2 (for me) is that we earned $.18/share in Q1, and management reiterated a break-even H1 (FH 2009) recently. Does that imply that we'll lose $.18 in Q2?? That would be a miss... Comments?

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    • I didn't take announcement as precluding a -.15 qtr. They weren't giving an exact number for 2nd qtr, even by inference.

      • 1 Reply to algo41
      • But if they are telling the Street that they "reiterated it would break even for the first half of 2009 and return to profitability in the second half of the year" - and they earned $.18 in Q1...

        How do you get to break-even unless they lose ~$.18 in Q2??

        I'm long the stock, it would just seem curious if they turn in another profitable quarter in Q2 based on their comments.

    • That's the way my simple mind interpreted their announcement.

      I've taken a great deal of comfort in three things about SKX:
      1. Incredible balance sheet. Fully $5 in cash with no debt. Incredible.
      2. The price points of their shoes are at an affordable level for families under financial pressure.
      3. Their shoes are not fadish, like a CROX.

      Have to love this price action!!!

24.99-7.19(-22.34%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT