Folks, SKX had a good earnings report. They are clearing the inventory in toning and management is pointing to a turn in earnings in the 2nd half. In short, the uncertainty that surrounded the stock is disappearing and they have a handle on the issue in toning. This stock is very cheap on a fundamental basis and we a excellent upside into the 30's as we move toward the 2nd half. And once the turn in earnings occurs in the 2nd half, its up-and-away...
Ridiculous. There was no lifting of uncertainty. Inventory grew when most expected a drop. Management stated that it will take 6 months to clear inventory, which means that they have extended the time=frame by three months when compared with what they said last time. Margins plummeted and indications are that we will see these weak margins for the next 6 months. Sales are expected to be down something like 10% YoY this quarter versus analyst expectations of a slight rise. Their market share in toning has plummeted from over 50% to more like one-third, and have ceded the market leadership to Reebok. Their Kardashian ad was uninspired and disappointed all the enthusiastic longs. The number of analysts appear to be dropping as indicated by the drop in questioners in the CC yesterday.
You are seeing a trading opportunity, not the start of a bullish leg. Max Pain for this Friday is $22, so Wall Street would love to pin this to $22 through tomorrow. But, when the analysts weigh in it will not be pretty. Take profits while you can.
First there's higher inventory because seasonal product is coming in. 2nd, the CEO said there is less than 6 months of inventory overhang when Posner tried to pin him down to 6 months.
Margins plummeted because they actively reduced unwanted inventory and other expenses. As stated, margins are expected to return earlier than 6 months, we are in the middle of the 1st Q and not at the beginning. This Q's margins are expected to improve, somewhere between last Q's and normal margins. 2nd Q's margins could even be better.
As stated, sales could be down as much as 10% for each of the first 2 Qs due to inventory reduction. At present, the 1st Q is not that high and is likely to be better as warm weather returns for seasonal product.
Market share for toning and Reeboks? I believe, it wasn't even mentioned. But you overstate the situation.
And who gives a crap for your opinion on Kardashian and the ad?
And who gives a crap about analysts opinion? But it won't change much. Right now it's at 1 sell and 4 holds, target $21, I believe. So maybe someone changes their hold opinion? Big deal.
Go short if you believe this, but the market expectations for SKX were obviously lower than you imply, hence the pop today. On a fundamental basis the stock is cheap, overseas sales were good, and we have real clarity in the earnings trends which hasn't been the case for the past half year. Analysts will be upgrading SKX, not downgrading it.