Poor Cartledge has the most innovative thinker on Ignore--and, unless someone has the gumption to send him this post, he will be in the dark.
First of all...I don't usually go out on a limb. My stock analysis has been consistently strong based upon information that is in the public domain or due to my very perceptive means of deciphering human behavior on conference calls.
I generally don't like guessing. Guessing is nothing more than red or black on the roulette wheel. Guessing is what makes you lose money. Guessing is what those idiots on CNBC are constantly doing.
And, now, showing that the eminent Little Jimmy Valentino is nothing more than a mere hypocrite...What am I advocating?
I'm guessing that SKX is going to surprise us this upcoming conference call because of TWO numbers.
1. The first number is 9. This is the number of months that have occurred since Mr. W announced, "Wooppsss.....we really misjudged this Toner thing. We have a boatload of inventory that we have to get rid of. But don't worry guys, Kim Kardashian is a Babe and Kareem Abdul Jabbar is still tall." Now, 9 months is an eternity in retail. And, enough time might have elapsed for them to say, "X% has been sold".
2. The second number is 85%. Nope. That's not my anticipated gross margins. Dream world if that were to occur. Nope. 85% is the percentage of the population that lives in the Northern Hemisphere. 85% of the population where the weather has been warm and,for the next 3 months, continues to be sunny. On other words, this is the TIME OF THE YEAR where the inventory should be depleted for virtually all domestic and international channels.
So....Go ahead, beat me up if you must. But only Little Jimmy Valentino is going out on a limb here--admitting his hypocrisy, admitting that he is going on a hunch instead of his customary analysis, in other words--ONLY ME is taking a strong stand here before any announcement that things might be on the upswing.
Hey, Jimmie, you're barking up the wrong tree. If you look at the annual report, on page 30, you can see that most of the inventory problem has been written off. If the earnings come in weak it is from cancellations from backlog, or current sales. Discounted sales from written off inventory are all accounted for as a plus in 2011.