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Skechers U.S.A., Inc. Message Board

  • nascar29car nascar29car Jul 29, 2011 2:50 PM Flag

    Upgrades? Yeah, what a joke

    So we got 2 upgrades that I'm aware of. One upgraded the stock down to $15 (based on todays price), and the other upgraded it all the way up to ...... $18. Wow. They can't even give enough love to get it to book value, even with a nice balance sheet.

    Are the analysts idiots? Possible. Do they not believe in SKX management? Possible. They have been misled in the past. Are the analysts trying to help clients cover their shorts while trying to maintain credibility with a weak "upgrade"? Who the F knows?

    Not what I expected. Took strength today in the swings to get back out. I just don't like this management team. They mislead shareholders. They stuff channels then dump stock. They wrecked LA Gear. They tried to buy Heelys.

    Good luck longs. The story isn't over here. I just don't have significant confidence in either direction. I still think they need to come cleaner on inventory. 2 million more pairs to go, so we are still in the "2 more quarters" mode. We'll see. If anyone has info on Poser's latest, please share. I'm curious what he says this time. My only regret here is playing calls a month too early. Yesterday would have been a 7 bagger. Oh well. Minimal loss.

    No barbs please. I'm just disclosing my position and why. I will root root root for the longs. HAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aa

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    • Why I will not learn I do not know.

      They say the definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I suspect the guys with the white jacket will be here in a few minutes.

      Bought some at $16.32

    • Johnny depending on what you call a really good short is can depend on what you call good profits.

      If you go short for the kill then you get what you asked for .... High risk with small returns. Short for .50 or 1.00 and go home if you don't go long. At the same time you never know where this thing may go from here. It should go up.

      I am watching the stock because I do not know where it might go. Long term it should go up depending on management.

    • My favorite shoes are SKX. With that said I have bought them at Rugged Warehouse a discounter in the past. Not Good. That means Belks, Dillards and others didnt sell them so they discounted them to Rugged Warehouse. The dump of inventory must be worked through by retailers. Book value can be eroded and anal-yst (I spelled it like I think of them) know that. SKX is not out of the woods yet. They need to better market their product LINES also. Ok they did a good job at doing walking shoes but they made to many. They did to market and control inventory much better in the future or they will loose more money. This market is a SHOW me market. Hopes dont do it with good words behind it.

    • Very good point Pete .


      Which is why the stock bounced up high, when they announced they took the writeoff HIT in Q2 and set aside a reserve for the rest of the 40m inventory of the 325m inventory that is still part of the old toner style group.

      I have 3 pairs of SKX shoes in my closet and none of them are toner shoes.

      If you DONT want to drop $100 or more on a pair of work boots or mens shoes but still want something DECENT, SKX has something in its priduct line that will probably suit your needs.

      Thats exactly why they have been able to grow sales to appx 2 billion dollars a year and are the #2 shoe seller in the USA behind NIKE ( which is one HUGE company ! )

      SKX with 40% plus margins, is a steal here trading BELOW book value with the toner issue mostly resloved.

    • I think that all this misconception a lot people have about Skechers is due to that they first started to pay attention to the company thanks to the shape-ups run. So, in their perception Skechers = shape-ups, and once it slowed down considerably, they wrote down the company all the way down to 0 or close enough. That is, they were put into the "fast growth" category, and then all of a sudden it was revealed that "shock and awe" they are not a fast growth company, they are, umm well, a shoes company which are doing not bad at all with their sparkly lil pinky shoes for lil girls.

      Reality is, that Skechers was around before shape-ups, and they were doing pretty well. They have proven they can sell and they will continue to sell; doing just fine in the future.

    • I do not know if those two million pairs of shoes suddenly turned to gold bars if the market will trust these guys until they show it things are really better. I will stay out of the politics, but we all know the background noise is messing up everything. Kind of a bad deal too, earnings season has been good to the companies I own for the most part.

      Just holding on to what I have right now here, but I would nibble a little on serious weakness. I kind of like the selling puts on weakness deal, but as you know I am more willing to wait it out than most if the stock gets put to me. Deep down, I lean too things are better, but with my track record here I would not put much faith in it, LMAO.

      I did a little nibbling at my dividend paying one today and one spec, but I must admit to being scared to go at anything heavy.

      You like to trade more than I do, put SWKS on your watch list for late Aug and Sept. I have calls sold on my core right now, but will likely up my position if it weakens during the traditional Sept sell off of tech. You should have time for the dd before the move starts, to decide if you have interest.

      Have a good weekend.

      • 1 Reply to catch83sails
      • One thing I forgot about SKX. You mentioned management selling stock.

        There was a batch of options they had that expires Nov 6, 2011 with a strike of $10.58. If they have any of them left unexercised, we should not be surprised here if we see them sold before the end of Sept. I hope they are gone, but it will likely be to late to roll them out if they wait until after the report the next quarter.

        Just a heads up, as shorty will certainly go crazy if we see insider selling, but I would not let them expire and not take the profit if I were management.

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