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FreeSeas Inc. Message Board

  • PhanManLover PhanManLover May 23, 2010 11:12 AM Flag

    FREE and its analysts

    For Q1, the mean of the 4 analysts revenue projections is 15.3mil. I'm predicting a slight miss on revs with a value near 15.1mil. If their utilization rate comes in at .97 (versus my forecasted value of .94), their revs jump from 15.1 (miss) to 15.6 (beat). With regards to EPS, the analysts project a EPS range of .06 to .08 with a mean of .07. My projection yields an EPS of .04, so Im going with a miss on EPS for Q1.

    Things start to get exciting beginning in Q2. Yahoo shows the range of analyst revenue forecasts to be 14.2-16.3 with a mean of 15.4mil. My numbers show revenues in Q2 to be 17.5mil (big beat). The analyst revenue range is .05-.08 with mean of .07. Im predicting EPS of .10 (beat).

    For the year, analysts are forecasting revs of 54-61mil (mean 58mil) with EPS of .13-.24 (mean .17). As long as the charter rates hold up, I am confident FREE will beat both the Q2 forecasts and 2010 forecasts. Prepare yourself for a Q1 miss.

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    • I'm curious about your theory on good or bad earnings reports being tipped off by the day of the week of the announcement. Last quarter's miss was reported on Monday and this one is being reported on Thursday before everyone bails out Friday until Tuesday. Human nature would call for good reports early and bad reports late.

    • Thanks for a well thoughtout analysis. Any guess why they haven't preannounced the quarter earnings report date yet? It's awfully late in the cycle.

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