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FreeSeas Inc. Message Board

  • skipjackmack skipjackmack Oct 22, 2010 12:26 PM Flag

    BHSI 950 is here!

    And the drift down in FREE's sp continues.

    So that's the first bit achieved of my BHSI prediction from Sep 17...second bit was the rally in the BHSI back up to 1100'ish by end of the year....driven mainly by the initial impacts of QE2 on global inventory re-stocking.

    One further prediction:

    The rally in the BHSI (if it does materialise) will have NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT on FREE's shareprice from here. And that's for very obvious reasons that I have alluded to many times before...NO ONE CAN PREDICT WHERE SPOT PRICES WILL BE IN 2011; Q3 2010 will have proved that FREE's high exposure to the spot market leaves it DISPROPORTIONATELY VULNERABLE.

    So those of you out there looking at the P/BV and thinking that this stock is a bargain...ask yourself what circumstances it will take to get the stock moving up so you can EXIT AT A PROFIT. You need INSTITUTIONAL INVOLVEMENT, not a bunch of retail investors getting excited about a low P/BV.

    FREE's management have guided this stock down from $5+ to sub-$1 (based on the prices pre-reverse split). And it is now down almost 50% from Sep 2009, despite NAV increasing over that period. In other words, INSTITUTIONS HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MANAGEMENT AND THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THIS IS THE RIGHT LINE TO TAKE....personally I can't believe the sheer arrogance of FREE's management.

    And all this from a disgruntled, long term long!!

    good luck all, dyor etc etc

    sjm

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    • A lot of excitement HERE? I hope so. FREE was one that I looked at as a long term investment. I'm beginning to think I ought to add the word VERY to that category.

      Joan

    • Looks like a Dow Theory buy signal and an S&P 500 (SPX) break above resistance this week so there will be a lot of excitement.

    • Thanks Tenaedi...good action with DRYS, but as usual FREE continues to mystify.

      I really think only a significant positive move in the BHSI and/or delivery of the new vessels in 2012 (whichever happens first) will cause FREE to move up.

      Caution always needed in December...lower volumes, increased optimism...usually dissipates in the dull, greyness of January...still, time to make hay while the sun is still shining - for DRYS at least! ;-)

      sjm

    • Skip, There is your $6 for DRYS and it is now looking for $7.
      Strange happenings with FREE this morning that could hold for a buy signal. Not logical so we'll have to wait for news.

    • I just can't believe there would be people trying to cut corners to profit in the markets-- unheard of. :)

    • Look out for big insider trading/brokerage scandal to hit first of the week!

    • Hey there Tenaedi

      Yeah...DRYS had a nice pullback on Tue/Wed and showed some good strength yesterday.

      With the shipping indices still dropping and djia failing to bust through 11188 and hold, I'm nervous about putting any more capital to work in this sector...I'd rather buy DRYS above $6 with strength and momentum.

      In the interim, I'm trading Manulife options and loading up on some beaten up precious metal producers...GQM, GSS and SLW.

      Did you note that I dumped a load of FREE at opening on Tuesday? Got out near the high for the day and watched it then drop to test $4...re-bought a few yesterday around $4.05...but very pleased I've more than halved my position.

      FREE management either just don't get it or they just don't care or they get it and they're just plain arrogant. The BHSI has almost halved from the May peak...spot market "strategy", my a*&%

      best of luck,

      sjm

    • The "GM" flurry yesterday did not change the sell signal on the DJIA so stay cautious.

    • FREE buy signal didn't hold up so I feel like just staying away until the overall shipping situation turns. I am not liking the currency/bond problems world wide. Obama is certainly not a deal maker. I am still worried about an international attack on the dollar. This QE2 has not been thought out and the WH, Treasury and Fed really don't get how hypocritical they look overseas.

    • Yes...DJIA not looking good at all.

      Very nice call on DRYS, btw. Thinned my position yesterday.

      What are your thoughts on FREE? I'm seeing range 4.65-5.05 ahead for next 3-6 months unless wider markets and BHSI decline significantly from here...in which case lower.

      sjm

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