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CONSOL Energy Inc. Message Board

  • norris_3845 norris_3845 Dec 5, 2006 3:09 PM Flag

    CNX future

    I feel like such a cheerleader for this stock, still the economics seem so overwhelming. We have NG prices going up, we have a tremendous number of coal plants or scrubbers either being commissioned or being proposed. The demand for coal is going up and will go up for a long time. I just don't see how CNX can do bad in this environment.

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    • The magnetic poles have actually reversed themselves something like 7 or 8 times during earth's history.

      If these global warming hand-wringers want to spend their time worrying about something serious that they have no control over, they ought to pray something like that never happens during their lifetime. A few more feet of water along the coastlines and altered growing seasons would be a relative walk in the park at that point.

      Of course the problem isn't the people who worry about these things, the problem is the people who capitalize on the hysteria caused by the 'scientists' in order to advance some sick agenda to control the world.

      JMO

      Scriv

    • DAMN! I've heard the poles changing, or rather moving, but I didn't know the full extent. I'm going to have to do some research on this.
      What would be the changes caused by this besides weather?
      And thanks for the education.

    • norris: I use to have a very large position in CNX; am now a much smaller investor in CNX. Generally, I like CNX best of the coal stocks; however, there are two potential problem areas that bother me enough to keep my coal/CNX investment to just a "taste." One which is more specific to CNX is the issue of longwalling. I am troubled that at some point in time, the political winds may shift to provide surface owners with absolute protections against planned subsidence from long wall operations. Secondly, the Congress and a different Administration could push through Greenhouse Gas legislation that would cripple the coal industry. I keep telling myself, that any meaningful attempt to curb CO2 emissions would be economic suicide but their are zealots that are in denial on the economic impacts of moving away from carbon based electricity. And as far as new longwall subsidence limitations are concerned, the judiciary may get a case one day that effectively stops longwalling. Odds of either of these happening is probably less than 25% over the next five years, but the thought keeps me mostly on the sidelines. Regards.

      • 3 Replies to mrdelphene
      • "One which is more specific to CNX is the issue of longwalling. I am troubled that at some point in time, the political winds may shift to provide surface owners with absolute protections against planned subsidence from long wall operations.
        Secondly, the Congress and a different Administration could push through Greenhouse Gas legislation that would cripple the coal industry. I keep telling myself, that any meaningful attempt to curb CO2 emissions would be economic suicide but their are zealots that are in denial on the economic impacts of moving away from carbon based electricity."

        Point 1. There is an abundance of laws and court decisions on the side of land lease holders. A whole lot of that would have to be changed, over-ruled, or some how set aside to prevent long wall mining.

        Point 2. Is well taken, zealots are hard to deal with, but after a few brown outs or a couple black outs the zealots would either change their minds or saner heads would make changes for them. It's a given that a lot of new energy sources will be from solar, wind, etc., but there won't be enough of that to replace existing coal fired plants.

      • Burning coal must be cleaner. If you think curbing Co2 would be economic suicide, so be it. It's better then half of Florida, and lower Manhatten getting flooded and everyone else moving in land. That would be far worse. If you clean it up, there is more $ involved.

      • It's all about earnings and I believe CNX will have a disappointing 4th Quarter and will give lower guidance than the street is expecting for next year. Crediting poor production performance to "market discipline" is nonsense.
        Coal has a great future but short term does not look good for many of these companies. I believe CNX will trade below 25 by summer.
        MINI

    • I could not agree more. Yes BTU is a cash money making cow, however CNX has their act together. Many multi year contracts have been signed. Northern Appalachia coal has a higher BTU output per ton then the low sulfur Powder River basin coal. That has a lot to do with the scrubbers being put in. I can not imagine installing new scrubber systems and not buying CNX coal, it just makes sense. Did anyone listen to their last public announcement? I did not hear any bad news.

      Also the Ohio River makes for reliable transportation southbound as well as the rail systems. Two transportation systems are better than one. This stock should be trading in the 40 dollar range.

 
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