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ARM Holdings plc Message Board

  • ashraf.eassa ashraf.eassa May 7, 2013 10:15 AM Flag

    The Street finally gets it


    How many bagholders did ARM's management create with its incessant hype? How many did the analysts who thought mobile chips were "magic" and that Intel couldn't do them make? Hell, even MIPS will reemerge from the ashes via Imagination Tech.

    There's a long way down from here.

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    • If the Street finally gets it, they've voted in favor of ARMH if the price action is any measure, and price action should always be the measure

    • So what do you think Imagination's strategy is going to be to resurrect MIPS?

    • Interesting that he posted his the street gets it at the low of the day. not that I'd rec new buys based on the daily chart rsi above 70

    • usually the street doesn't get it right away. Intel is slowly creeping into ARM's space.
      wait for few months ....

    • Talking about INTC one guesses as both it and ARMH are off about 1 percent from recent highs, for ARMH multi year highs well above where you first shorted it, for INTC highs well below the peak last year, and even further below the peak hit in 2004 at 34.00

    • ashraf

      I guess I'm one of those bagholders, but not because of any hype by ARMH (back to that in a minute) rather 2 years of research beginning in 2000, which resulted in my first purchase of ARMH(Y) in 2002.

      It was my belief that the world was going wireless and digital and I wanted to find some investments that could be profitable over the long term. Bottom line was I came up with ARMHY & QCOM. One for their business plan - the other for it's patents.

      Having no background in technology, engineering or finance was why it took me 2 years to write a thesis on how this wireless, digital world would evolve, with the end point being a mobile user having a device in his hand that is just as powerful as any wired computer with the capability to be future-proof by being able to download new functions/apps in picoseconds as opposed to years.

      Since a mobile device can only run as fast as the network it connects to a lot of new technologies have to be invented to make this a reality. But make no mistake about it, that future-proof mobile device will becoe a reality.....................just like all tech it will take time and cost more money than you originally envision.

      Being an entrepreneur, past professional gambler and handicapper, allows me to look at the big picture, understand money management , do extensive research and combine that with common sense to form a skillset that actually works rather nicely in the biggest casino in the world.........the stock market.

      If you look at ARM's business model it becomes quite evident that they can only become successful if their partners are successful. This requires a lot of time and financial commitment for all involved. This was a totally unique business model at the time and as the growth of ARM's ecosystem (Connected Community) grows expotentially success is a given.

      Success occurs when preparation meets opportunity.


      • 1 Reply to lackeygarrett
      • I used to post on this board under the alias mattpro, but those posts have been deleted.

        I have been posting here since 2002 and have always posted what I was doing with ARMHY stock before buying or selling.

        Since ARM was a long term growth story it was only appropriate to make a long term investment.

        Have a plan - work your plan.

        My plan was simple - dollar cost average into ARMHY monthly for 10 years - wait 3 years afterward - then sell the shares in the same manner accumulated.

        This worked fine until 2004 when ARMHY purchased Artisan for almost $1B and stated it would take about 7 years for that investment to be material (actually it's happening this year with 28nm), which caused me to create a new strategy - swing trading. I actually made 6 swing trades in 10 years to grow share count, while still purchasing my monthly dollar allotment. The one exception being in 2012 when the total years purchases were made in the first 3 months of the year.

        Bottom line - for any investor who followed my strategy they would have 775k shares @10.46 and will start making their first withdrawals in 2015.

        Oh, that Intel ditty. ARM never hyped it's own stock - it was the press linking ARM to Intel in their articles along with Cramer's hype on his fast money show that started the acceleration of ARMH' share price. This started in 2010 and has been ongoing ever since.

        Simple logic questions for you

        If you had a choice of using a Reduced architecture or a Complex one for mobile devices that require energy efficiency, which one would you choose?

        If you were building a pyramid, would you start from the bottom and work upward or would you start at the top and work down ?

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