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Herman Miller Inc. Message Board

  • w00dgypsy w00dgypsy Sep 22, 2005 7:41 PM Flag


    This industry could be in for some serious cost issues going forward. Raw materials in both plastics and steel will be a drag on all.
    Knoll is already feeling the pain compounded by lackluster ontime performance and increasing labor cost resulting from lower productivity. These may mot show in the near future results but will certainly emerge not to far down the road. And we hear Moral is getting pretty bad. Top heavey salaries at the top are bloating this short term cash cow.

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    • Your wrong. Insiders sales are simply a fact
      and oil prices are not or as yet have not
      declined from the levels that threatened
      economic growth, but only the recent higher
      highs brought on by the threat of Rita.
      What I'm also saying is, how does one justify
      holding MLHR, Ariel Capital for example, when
      it's long term trend seems to be set in the
      same range. At least when you go LT with say,
      P&G for example, you don't look back.It has
      certainly appeared that MLHR has had a limited
      upside and more predictable downside, great
      earnings or not. How far down could they go if
      an eventual bad quarter comes along?

    • A great quarterly report, upward guidance and
      an upgrade to outperform from market perform.
      All this good news and the stock is just a tad
      higher than its 6 month low. After next qtrs.
      earnings, who knows how low it can go.
      All I can figure is that no ones buying, or
      no ones selling or that the positive cycle may
      be nearing an end. I know thats a lot of
      figuring, but it didn't take me long. And how
      about those lumber prices. If I were MLHR and
      wanted to keep my margins up and freight costs
      down, I'd finish development of that new
      invisible chair, 100% recyclable and available
      in 6000 colors, fabric or leather.

      • 1 Reply to ivybanks1
      • Hey Ivy; Look at the charts:

        At the beginning of '05, oil was $50 or so, MLHR was $22 or so, and you said MLHR was headed sharply downward due to the impending raw material increases as oil was rising. Now oil is $65+ and Mlhr is $29 (as high as 33 recently) and you are still crying wolf, even though there's a pretty good chance that oil has plateaued and could well come down (Saudis want oil to stabilize in the $45-50 range).

        Seems to me that you're being very contradictory in correlating MLHR fortunes to raw material prices (or at least barking up the wrong tree).

        Waddaya thinking?

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