1. DISH will get the FCC waiver 2. DISH will enter network sharing agreement or mvno deal with sprint. sprint needs cash and spectrum. dish needs a network and operator. 3. dish and sprint will enter into various cross selling agreements. sprint stores will sell dish service. 4. Dish and sprint will use clwr for extra capacity in dense urban areas 5. dish will sell fixed and mobile wireless 4g service across the US. 6. dish will sell mobile internet service that is built directly into cars...with pandora audio, etc. joe clayton used to run sirius. 7. dish will sell blockbuster streaming through sprint mobile customers and this data won't hit the cap. blockbuster streaming will be a major promo used in sprint ads.
I would not guess sprint. Dish does not want to go wholesale. Wholesale has not worked for Clearwire. Wholesale is the reason to co locate with sprint. Sprint does not have the money to buy dish spectrum. Lightsquared made a big bet in a industry they did not understand and lost big to gps. Lightsquared may have lost to wholesale if they were granted gps.
AWS at 2.1Ghz is closer to Dish 2.0Ghz than PCS 1.9Ghz for antenna sharing. Verizon AT&T and T-mobile all have AWS.
FCC approval may already be priced in. Dish is over priced if the FCC kills the bet.
I got out yesterday since I've already done well on the stock over the last few months and can use some short term capital losses to offset my tax bill in 2012.
I'll repurchase below $26 if it gets there. If there is an NPRM then this thing could be dragged on and on and on such that the wait would kill the 4G plans. I think the main upside was in repricing the spectrum upward if they got the waiver...there was probably some upside left but a lot of it was already in the stock.