The stock is at $19. I see lots of problems with this company going forward. I had sold my positions some time ago and would not consider buying it unless it drops to $8. Frankly, if it drops to 8, I would still carefully weigh the risks and rewards before investing only a small amount of my portfolio.
Let's run the positives and negatives right now.
Positives, *Excellent Enabling Technology, *Great programming (little competition in this area) except missing local channels, *Lots of channels, Possible internet service, *CEO with lots of his money in this company
Negatives, *The Technology is too expensive *Uncertainty in getting Federal Agency to approve service of local channels *Competition is brutal in this commodity business *Distribution channel is still limited due to lack of marketing capital *300% increase in broadcast costs charged by the government *High costs of customer acquisition: business model causes DISH to lose money for three years for every customer it gets - lots of risk and big drain on cashflow. *Burden of truck loads of debt at 12% to 13% annual interest - $1.6 BILLION - which DISH willl need to start to pay in two years. Interest payments alone could run as high as $130 million annually. This will be a heavy drain on DIsh's earnings and deter lots of acquisition-minded companies.
Conclusion: Not a good investment, would liquidate or sell short. Only my opinion - not offer of solicitation. Make your own decisions.
cyberman456 Web Designer of China Art Net Visit today for Panda Art Gallery, your horoscope, and Chinese Movie Stars!!! >http://www.geocities.com/Tokyo/Temple/6189
Be very careful if you plan to short this stock after the volume begins to slow. I've played this one the last two times selling short after the hype of the satellite went away, and made good both times. But this companies subscriber base is growing so fast, that profitablity is getting close. If they hit a million subscribers in late Nov. to early Dec. this stock could take off again based on that and the up-coming launch in January. Just wanted you to know.
JSmacks, as soon as you see the volume begin to slow down, the upward swing will slow accordingly. This is an emotional roller-coaster ride that could go down as quick as it came up. Now understand my thinking (for what it's worth). My trading is based on volume changes. You can have a great stock like PRCM. Everyone knew it was a great stock for two weeks. Even after the reports of increased sales, the stock still didn't move. Then the volume increased, and now the price is being to rise. So by watching the volume, I kept my money in other stocks till I saw movement. Now understand that by using this concept, I never get in at the lost price, and ussually I miss the highest price, but I'm up 55% for this month alone. So I can't complain. Same is true for the down swing. When volume slows from an EMOTIONAL buying frenzy(like DISH), the price will adjust according. That's one of the key secrets to successfully selling short.
This stock "dish" I have had it for over a year. Knowing that it will gradually continue to climb. I am one of the largest dish net work dealers in the country. The grouth of this product will soar with the addition of echostar III launch. My recomendation to you is to buy now and hang on to it. Rickey Miller (SEE WORLD SATELLITES) HOMER CITY P.A.
(1) Satellite launch brings local networks to reallity for DISH customers, and an increase in programming options.
(2) DISH sold 75,000 units according to Echostar, but my sources have the figures over 90,000 units for the first three weeks of Aug. alone. That brings me to my third point.
(3) With the reported figure of 75,000 units sold, that places a time-frame of late Dec. to reach 1,000,000 subscribers. (Late Nov. or early Dec. if my sources are right) And that means simply one thing, the break-even point for earnings.