This is why golfmessiah is all washed up. (This is the clown who said that all other media are "taking share" from radio.) This guy's credibility is a joke.
If we retrace to $6.00-6.25, I'm "reloading" the shares I recently sold out of at $6.98-7.45.
From today's Inside Radio (full story at insideradio.com $$)
Media analysts at SNL Kagan peg radio revenue to grow 6.4% this year, which would mean the industry is pacing to beat the recovery in overall advertising. While the current outlook is strong, Kagan says radio has a long way to climb to return to its revenue peak. More details in today's Inside Radio.
Longtime, don't get me wrong, I do understand radio revenue is up from terrible lows in 2009. But it isn't up very much. You have to consider how much it went down. GDP is almost back to where it was but radio has not recovered.
I think the dynamic at play is that ad pricing per listener hour is up because ad budgets are improved, but the radio listener hours continue to decline. And the intrinsic quality (value) of those hours declines as sat-rad takes the money listeners and MP3, I-phone, and internet radio takes the young spenders.
So for now the radio publications always focus on the small revenue rebound from 2009, but they do not want to discuss the long term year over year loss of radio hours and listener and listener quality. Given the huge debt won't be paid for a dozen plus years you have to keep a very long term perspective of the value of the product that ETM makes.
I don't think anybody sees a slight amount of post recession pricing power as mitigating the long term decline.