I must admit, I "peeled off" a small amount at a $9.50 avg. today....figuring it MIGHT retrace to $8.05-8.35, and I can buy back in there.
the $ value of my position is about half of what it was when the stock bottomed at $5. While I view a reasonable range of fair value, right now, some where around $12-12.50, it could take several weeks to get there...and we could easily get some backing and filling first. Then again, if the industry comes back into favor, it could easily "spike" back to $14-16, and CMLS could spike back to $4.50-5.00.
I haven't shorted yet. You know I've studied. Yes it is overvalued. But people who "invest in radio" are dense. Like those who bought GM at a buck. So this can go up until the reality of refinacing and doubling interest payments hits them in the EPS.
But the more "overvalued" it gets, the more likely they can issue some common stock, and reduce debt enough, relative to EBITDA, to get a significantly lower interest rate. Even YOU would admit that, no? Just for example, what if they issue 10 M shares at $15, in 3-6 months?