- ARWR has transformed from retail to institution. That's why the short attack today that might have worked on clueless retail investors fell totally flat.
- ALNY goes from $10 to $60 on miniscule disease, just imagine what ARWR will get to in 2014 on Hep B. That's why no rush to sell or partner.
- ARWR has all the ingredients to become the giant of RNAi. Good summary of these acquired from Roche and very intriguing insights into that deal of the century. (Once again, Roche put more than $500 million into this that today would cost in excess of $1 billion in my estimation.)
- DPC is the most flexible and powerful delivery extant and ARC-520 will highlight that fact in a blinding neon light in the coming P2s.
I will be putting what money I can find into this company, consistent with developments.
Frankly, I view this as the opportunity of the lifetime.
12 mo. price target north of $100.
Shorts are welcome to increase the number of shares. It'll be a while before new shares will be made available to the market and at much higher prices as co has all the money it wants right now to do what they want through 2016.
A takeaway for me was Anzalone's ambition. It also struck me how different the overall tone was in this meeting compared to the tone during the very first ARWR conference call I listened to: the 2013 Q1 earnings call. Back then Anzalone was placating frustrated investors. Yesterday he was driving.
Following will be the steps of price movement.
1. PPS will gradually move to $12-13 range by Feb2014.
2. Phase2a - we will see at $15 Range by March-Apr 2014.
3. Phase 2a results will start leaking.
4. PPS will move little faster. $20-24 range May to mid June.
5. July 1st/2nd wk phase2a out.
6. PPS will jump to $46 and settle down between $38-42 range.
7. Big whales(Fidelity/pension/mutual funds) will start to take positions.
9. Phase 2b starting.
8. PPS moves to $60-70 range by September.
10. Anticipation of P2b results will drive this price close to $100 by the end of the year.
11. ALNY will bid for a buyout - $5B/$150 per share (talking all bank loans)
12. ARWR will reject offer and wait for phas2b results.