A failed auction this week or jobless claims can send TLT to 113 this week
It can go either way this week. The put options are betting it will go down. The only certainty is that QE cannot go on foreever, hence the intermediate and long term trend is down. If you are trading TLT, my advice is don't buy TLT for momentum. If China's surplus becomes a deficit, they will sell treasuries and there will be nobody left to buy. Keep in mind, Bernanke's days are numbered.
Let's see....the 30 yr auc today went off like a charm, the Chinese cant sell because they will be shooting themselves in the foot, and bernanke will around for some time. What next? Ok. You bought some puts and a few shares of tbt. So you think you will talk the market down on yahoo? lol. I'll bet you flinched when you saw the futures take back all of today's loss and post green for a while. You need to come up with some better spin for tomorrow:)
Today, it was only the 10 year treasury and I am guessing that they are propping treasuries up because of quarter end. Portfolios that hold treasuries don't want to look like they lost that much. There is some risk on the FOMC meeting next week. There is a probability that some members may want to end QE early.