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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Message Board

  • trollintradin trollintradin Jun 22, 2013 7:37 PM Flag

    #housing crash #20% rates #2014 #20%unemployment #Deflation #followed by inflation #SELL #KING DOLLAR

    SELL BEFORE RATES SKYROCKET!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Ok fella, what exactly are you doing here? Lol! in one post of yours you say, "gold to $50 by december!!!!! Fed exit! Bond mt crash! Get outtt ahhhh sentiment: strong sell". in this post you say "housing crash, 20% rates, unemployment, deflation, followed by inflation, sell king dollar, sell before rates skyrocket!" ok, what i'm seeing here is a twisted mind that is living in hyper fear. anyone who knows anything about economics 101, knows that silver and gold would rip to the moon if there was inflation on the horizon, it's crashing instead due to one thing and one thing only, "deflation". deflation, deflation, deflation...and deflation means lower rates not higher rates. also, if the housing market is crashing, then mortgage rates would be heading down with interest rates due to a softer housing market and softer economic picture all together. Because when housing hits the fan, as it's about to do because of mortgage purchases falling off over the past 5 weeks, you are about to get the shock of your life, rates should be going down not up. they are only going up short term on the short end of the bond curve due to a poker face play by bernanke to see your reaction to scaling back on qe by a mear 10 or 15 billion out of 45 billion / month purchases. that still leaves a robust 30 billion per month going into 2014, just remember that. and, the 15 billion scale back is only "if the economic data supports such a move", which i can already assure you it won't, because china is hitting the fan as we post to this board. China's pmi has shrunk and is now in contraction mode for 3 months running, and latest report last week states it's at a 9 month low of 48.3. Pmi needs to be above 50 to show expansion. If china is having a hard landing, dream on if the fed is going to cut their qe into this backdrop, not going to happenn brother! ditto for europe where spain is in dyer straits, w/italy, greece and a hand full of other regions there in deep deep recessions.

      • 5 Replies to pennelopechase
      • i'm hungry

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • and after they try tight money and see that it's crashing the economy...then they'll probably start easing again and watch PM prices go up....looks like they're intending on tightening monetary policy and seeing what response it has from the economy. it's a big experiment...

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • and the u.s. 10-year bond rate is a good predictor for mortage rates...if that goes up then expect mortgage rates to go up too. the 10 year rate just went up above 2.5%...that could easily get to 4%+ quickly on Fed exit along with people pre selling the Fed

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • so basically, markets are forward looking...despite deflation occuring now globally as shown in pmi's etc., markets are expecting tighter monetary policy in the future...so precious metals are probably looking forward a few years into the future...they are signaling tighter monetary policy- so that means higher rates. and rates aren't going to increase gradually b/c the bond market is a bubble- selling momentum would increase quickly.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • it's $85b a month...and they're falling bc they're pricing in an end to easy money...inflation isn't the only variable in the pricing of bonds...if the Fed is exiting and people expect higher rates then rates will go up despite the inflation rate. bond market is a bubble and not working on fundamentals, if the people expect an end to easy money then the bubble popping will gain momentum and the market would be a mess based off of decisions from irrational traders...precious metals wouldn't be selling off on deflation because the central bank would print money and PM investors would anticipate that response from the Fed and PM prices would increase...they're decreasing now so PM traders are anticipating deflation WITH an exiting of the Fed....prices would increase if there was deflation with an expected money printing by central banks. prices would decrease if there was inflation with an expected tight money policy.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
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