Japan has a public debt to GDP ratio over twice the size of ours, yet their long-term interest rates are less than half of our rates. So a better question is: Why haven't Japanese interest rates exploded? And once you figure that one out, you'll understand why it's not going to happen here. We are trapped in an era of slow growth, low loan demand, low inflation and low interest rates. We are the new Japan.
again as in many posts, you do not have your facts straight.
Most of the Japanese debt is internal - a huge difference from mostly external debt of this country.
Do not use Japan - use Argentina, Russia, Greece, Italy, Spain, Easter European countries, etc... - that is the pathway we are on, so for every example you bring, I can give you dozens that contradict your point.
Here is the challenge - give one example of the country with the big external debt that does not have a pressure on sovereign bonds and you will have a point, otherwise do so research.before making statements that cannot be proven by facts.
Generally speaking, the is no linear dependency between money supply, and bond rates.
I usually explain this as a pressure cooker left on the fire, nothing happens until it does.
and when it does, it happens hard.
So who knows, it could be in a month or in a year.
I am operating under assumption that with s*** will hit the fan, the rate on TLT will get to 8% in a harry.
The risk/reward is tilted to risk.
Buying TLT at this time akin playing the casino - you can be up for a while, but if you keep playing the house will take it all....