The data says the labor market has improved - hiring is up, jobless claims down, housing improving, etc. This is the day, today is the day, that Sal has been talking about for YEARS!!!!! Once the market improves Monster will grow again - do you believe him?
If you do, now is the time to buy.
I don't believe him and neither does the market though so once they report next month I think you'll see another sell off. I expect 10+% down YoY and no real turn around. In other words the BIG LIE will be revealed and Sal will be shown the door this year.
Monster will be lucky to do $800M in revenue this year - with an improving labor market........sad. It's not over, it's OVER!
I agree with everything you wrote with one exception.....although I think it's a shame, I think Sal will be able to hold onto his job through 2013.
The board clearly isn't going to vote him out and there is no major holder making any noise about Sal going. The major holders and analysts seem to just keep buying what Sal is selling.
He still doesn't recognize who the number one competitor is (LinkedIn, not CB) and keeps selling the street on the idea that customers are being cautious in this climate even though he has almost zero contact with customers. And he keeps getting away with that spin....even on the last call, nobody questioned when he made the claim that Monster was getting more traffic than their top competitor. So, in the absence of any serious push-back from anyone (the board, the institutions, etc)....I think Sal will hold on until 2014.
However....if he does get shown the door.....I'm sure his parachute is going to be quite nice. Since he cashed out a $4 Million payday for selling Symbol, I'm sure that during the attempts to sell Monster that he and the rest of the board spent a lot of time evaluating their separation clauses.