IMOS will earn 25 cents in the first quarter and full year will be above $2. FCF coming in over $3 per share and my guess on the EMS IPO listing is north of $15 and will move to true value north of $25 as we get closer to the main listing and get a couple of more quarters under our belt.If we use this years eanings of $2 and give a peer average multiple of 13 $26 is in the cards when we open up on the main board early part of the 4th quarter. CC was awesome but as usuall they are very conservative.
42 cents?--Net cash up over $30M: Is this not way positive?
Net Earnings of US$0.42 Per Basic and US$0.41 Per Diluted Share Compared to US$0.26 Per Basic and US$0.25 Per Diluted Share
Generated US$17.3 Million of Free Cash Flow after US$20.0 Million of CapEx
Retained Balance of Cash and Cash Equivalents at US$310.4 Million
Total Debt Reduced to US$277.6 Million With Net Cash of US$32.8 Million
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. ("ChipMOS" or the "Company") (IMOS) today
$2.00 might be possible if everything falls in place. $1.67 represents a more conservative estimate for full year 2013, based on the following assumptions:
1) Sequential rev. growth each quarter as management guided. Approximately 8% 2Q sequential growth, 10% in 3Q and 3% in 4Q. These assumptions preclude a Q/Q revenue decline in 4Q, like the company had last year.
2) Depreciation flat at $32MM each quarter.
3) Operating expenses 8% of revenue in Q1 reflecting inelasticity in the short-term. Operating expenses at 7% thereafter, using upper range of company's guidance.
4) Income Tax rate of 17%, which is the maximum corporate tax rate in Taiwan.
5) No margin benefit to ChipMOS from declining gold prices. Their limited customer base will expect the benefit of lower gold prices to be passed on to the customer.
5) Non-controlling interests estimated at 12% of pre-tax income.
6) $3MM FX gain in Q1, FX neutral thereafter.
7) Shares outstanding 28,450,000 after Q1, assuming 450,000 shares are repurchased under the $7,500,0000 buyback in the 2nd quarter at an average price of $16.67/share.
I would expect that the secondary GRETAI stock offering will initially sell in the 20 to 22 NTD range, but will trade up higher later in 2013. Clearly, there will be one and, most likely two new analysts issuing initial research reports in July, with "BUY" recommendations. If other research firms, who do not currently earn fee income from their relationship with ChipMOS, also initiate coverage later this year, that should lend additional support to the price of the stock.
I would be really disappointed if they sell the secondary GRETAI stock offering in the 20 to 22 NTD range. I do not think you have to discount that much to sell it unless Taiwan investors do not like IMOST as it was in US. $NT20-$22 would correspond only $15 or so for imos, give PEttm around 11.
Caff, do you stand by your .25 earnings prediction? I assume that includes a nice forex gain. If so, that will be a nice beat tomorrow. As always, the key is guidance. And i think they need to guide at least 14% above Q1.
Caff, I have $2.05/share for IMOS this year and we're basically in agreement regarding IPO pricing. I'm not sure about the $26 number though...but maybe you're right. Chipbond traded at 12x forward earning at year-end and if things stay cool it's doable. I have $TW3.32 for 2014 assuming GM improvement to 21%. I think it will be closer to $20/share though by second IPO time factoring in the restructuring of ownership. Either way its all good.
When do you see the second IPO happening? How high do you see the stock of imos going? It looks like imos will clear $17/share on Friday and reach $20/share by September (Memory indicated that as well.). Do you see it going to $30/share when true value should be reached around August of 2014 or so?