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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert Mar 25, 2013 1:03 PM Flag

    Thought's on Dave's call

    First, I want to echo everyone's appreciation to Dave.

    Two major positives from the call: first, business is clearly good. Numbers will go up and shares will look cheaper and cheaper on financial metrics. And two, they seem eager to continue buybacks - that will help establish credibility to the street and is fundamentally the right thing to do, even of the stock is $18 and not $12.

    As for ipo timing, that doesn't worry me. Obviously it's moving forward and if mgmt acts intelligently (ie buybacks) and fundamentals are good, the stock price will go up a ton. And very likely, even prior to the Taiwan major market listing.

    My only concern is about the new potential strategic opportunities. Chipmos needs to be very thoughtful/careful about how they would be structured. Spansion was a strategic relationship with long term customer guarantees. It required $500 million in cap-ex and almost drove IMOS into bankruptcy. If structured correctly a new arrangement could take IMOS to the next level - I just wouldn't them to mess up what has become an exceptionally profitable business. That said, very good to know they have substantial opportunities ahead.

    Thanks a ton Dave!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Dave;
      Ditto what Memory said.Between you and Caff. We are the most Informed and knowledgeable board I have ever seen.Did S.J. Say when the buyback would actually start ? Monday is beginning of quarter.What a message management could send to the markets by starting then.A kind of " Happy April fool's day " Cheers and thank's again for the effort.

      • 1 Reply to sean777007
      • Thanks to everyone for your kind remarks. The real thanks however goes to SK for taking the time to answer so many questions. I appreciate that.

        Sean, your question about the buyback was on my list but I missed it. Last time the announcement was made during the third week of August and a month later it kicked in. I suspect the same thing will occur, around the third week of April. A while back I read that under this kind of buyback plan its a good idea for legal reasons to wait a month following the announcement.

        For those of you who raised questions about the potential for an increase in capital spending I think you need not worry. That's all I'll say on that.

        Yesterday the stock closed above the $12 mark for the first time since early January. Still cheap. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (please) but it occured to me that because they have to get ChipMos Bermuda down below 70%, around 15% of ChipMos Taiwan needs to be sold by August. That's about 126M shares. Sell that at $TW20 and you have about $84M that can be used for buybacks, for example.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Imos is not a buy above $12 or so. It is a good buy between $8 and $10 and a fair buy between $10 and $12. At $18, it is a sell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Sentiment: Buy

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