FWIW, my best stock selections over the years have come from the Yahoo message boards. I have periodically listed the stocks I like best and asked other posters to do the same. I take recommendations and then look at the fundamentals. Only one out of 20 or 30 suggestions ever leads any further than that, but occasionally a poster will suggest a stock and provide some good logic for why it has great potential, and subsequent investigation verifies the claims.
The only reason I stayed with IMOS and bought a bunch of additional shares at the bottom was because of Caffeine's posts and those of a few other knowledgeable folks. It is amazing how often one or two posters, alone, have led me to a great stock (or kept me in a stock when things looked doubtful).
At the moment I'm loaded with only two primary stocks--GE (target $28 or above) and IMOS (target $30), so I don't have any bargains to recommend other than those. BEBE was a great buy at $2.80, but it has more than doubled since then. STX was a good buy at $30, but it seems fairly valued now. WDC was a super bargain at $30, but it, too, now seems reasonably priced. After selling off all of my winners except GE and IMOS, I'm searching for replacement stocks that, for one reason or another, are significantly misunderstood and therefore undervalued. Any suggestions?
Great thread from back in June. This is the thread where Caff advises that he has purchased MU options in one of the best posts ever.
On the topic of other stocks, I'm doing some serious dd on AMD. They have been pounded for years by Intel, but they really seem to have turned it around. They have turned profitable and expect to remain so throughout 2014 thanks in part to securing the chip win for both the Playstation4 and XBox 1, beating out Intel and Nvidiia. Stock has traded down to the 3's and finally appears headed for a rebound. Options are available and the premiums aren't too bad.
Just my two cents, but on the PC CPU side, I think they are loosing more ground against Intel by the day and I can't see that turning around, maybe ever. I would expect them to loose even more market share. Other issue is I'm not sure how much money they make on the Playstation/Xbox. They may have undercut Nivida to get the contract, but it is a very long contract which should give them several years of revenue. The one bright spot is they finally came out with a Video card that actually is pretty good.
AMD could turn it around, but I would be very wary. They have debt, and are competing against companies (Nivida and Intel) that are highly profitable, in the lead, and have tons of cash with no debt, in a non growth business. More often than not, that turns out very badly as it is very hard to fight back when you are also in poor financial shape.
That said, we are in Christmas shopping season now. It's a good time to be looking for beat up companies that have a good chance to turn things around next year and you will get a good January pop when tax loss selling ends.
Good news on 8150 last night. It actually popped 5% in 10 min, then slowly drifted back. Less than 100,000 share buy pushed it up $1. The stock can move quickly with the low volume. Hopefully the next move sticks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Bob, I recommended RVLT a couple of weeks back, haschultz hit me hard on it as he didnt like it much,anyway Im up 24% in a couple of weeks now. I think it still has room to run. Still respect you haschultz on your assessments.
Are you referring to Cameron International; the oil services firm? With oil prices under pressure from slowing economies, oil companies are looking to cut costs............and thus there will be pressure on service company product/service prices and thus margins. I am an engineer for a larger international oil company and we are aggressively looking to cut costs. I've already cut over $50 million in my area and looking for more......and contractors are being squeezed on several fronts (less business (do we really need that data or need to do that?) as well as asking/bidding for lower prices).
Bob, thanks for the confidence that you have had in my posts. I am sure you have been following my 2 other picks since last September, Himax and Micron. I did sell out my Himax as it reached my target price of $6 but Micron as you know I have been pounding the table since February. I feel just as excited about Micron today as I do of IMOS. I think they both have a potential of a double from here in the next 12 months. I do think that as long as the Elpida transaction closes that Micron could even triple. When you say you want to buy a stock that is misunderstood by the street then there is not 2 better stocks then these 2 that I know of. Just today Stifel upped the target price of Micron to $16 based on an 81 cent earnings forecast for fiscal 2014 that starts in September.He used a 20 times multiple which is not really out of line as their growth rate will be higher. He stated when the Elpida deal closes ( end of this month or early part of next quarter) that he forecast's for low 46 cents for 2014. That would be earnings combind of $1.27 times 20 or a rise in his target to over $25. That is what is going to happen by 30 analysts that will have to move up earnings and then of course price targets by more then 50% in the next month or so. That is a huge catalyst that have not only made me buy the stock but I also have loaded up on options back in february. I never play options because it is so hard to predict the timing of a major move but buying the October's and January 2014 seemed to me as a safe time period. I never bought an IMOS option because as we all know that it has been impossible to predict the timing but also would not have ever sold out my postion because you never could know what could happen overnight. Micron still has so much room to run even though it is up about 100% this year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Caff: You may be right about MU, but the key statistics don;t meet my criteria. My daughter called me about BEBE several months ago when the price was about $2.90/share. She told me that she loves to shop at Beebe, that the P/S used to be about $9, but had fallen to less than $3. She asked me what I thought about it. I remembered reading a post by a dentist many years ago concerning PSUN. He explained that sometimes clothing designers screw up, the clothes don't sell, and the stock price gets hammered. PSUN had fallen from $25/share to single digits for that reason. He explained that if the fundamentals are good, those kinds of companies almost always recover and he explained how much money he had made buying those kinds of out-of-favor stocks. I looked at the key statistics and saw that PSUN had no debt, owned 500 stores, had lots of other good numbers, etc. I bought a bunch of shares and doubled my money in less than six months. Years later, I happened to notice that PSUN was selling for $1.40/share. I visited a PSUN store and learned from a clerk that the store managers were buying the stock like crazy. I did the same thing and again made a lot of money. After my daughter called me about BEBE, I looked at the key statistics and saw that the company has no debt, etc. I concluded that the BEBE designers probably screwed up and told her it looked good to me. She and I both bought shares and today the price has more than doubled since then. These are the kinds of companies I search for. I own GE for a different reason. It is more like a mutual fund without fees. The stock fell from $40/share to $6/share in 2008. I started buying it at $12/share, and I trade it all the time. It pays a 3.3% divvy, I trust the management, and if offers the same diversification as a mutual fund. It is on the cutting edge of many industrial technologies and has an increasing footprint in energy, NG production, new NG high-efficiency engines, advanced wind turbines, jet engines, etc.
Go see the earnings and margins on HIMX and tell me that it doesn't have a double in it by this time next year or so. I like IMOS as it is undervalued............but still needs to attract enough attention to become fully valued.
I will need to educate myself on MU to see the value you mention. I had quit following them closely last year.
But, HIMX earned or is expected to earn:
- FY2011 was $0.066/share
- FY2012 was $0.30/share or 400+% gain from FY2011
- FY2013 expectation is $0.42/share or 40% gain from FY2012
- FY2014 expectation is $0.61 which is 45% gain from FY2013
Put a 25 P/E on these (so PEG is
Caff- I rate this post among your top 3 of all-time. Great reasoning, superb clarity and excellent conclusions. This does not necessarily make you right but I am betting heavily that events will unfold as you predict. I just wish I could find another stock like the three you mentioned. I am sure there are some out there that will move higher and faster but IMOS and MU seem comfortable to maintain large poseys with as much confidence that one can find in equities.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm fully invested right now, but if I wasn't I don't know if I'd be putting more in or sitting on the sidelines. I ran some screens recently and found a lot fewer potential bargains than other times I've done that, which often makes me feel that the market is going to take a pause. I did add a small amount of MU stock and a large amount of MU calls recently, because the Elpida deal looks like it's almost certain and was ridiculously cheap, and DRAM/NAND pricing is looking very strong for the foreseeable future.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
JW, thoughts on NTE at these levels would be appreciated, as well as confirmation on near and medium term dividend status.
Still couldn't pass up buying in on IMOS @$18.20 end of last week, when I thought we had more than enough. Full disclosure: Sold 2% @ %18.66, $18.56, but back in as stated.
Sentiment: Strong Buy