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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

  • buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Nov 8, 2013 9:34 AM Flag

    Revenue Numbers

    Just wondering if anyone can comment on the Oct revenue numbers. Was this a surprise or to be expected due to inventory corrections?

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    • Oct revenues are in the fourth quarter so this is the softness that others have mentioned. I was hoping for flat month to month but we didn't get it. As far as revenues go going forward, the finger print sensor should be kicking in very soon, so that should be a direct boost. We should also have some extra work come in from Micron at some point. Not guaranteed, but most likely it will happen.

      The bottom line is that the stock is trading like it is going to be out of business in a few years. True that we have had disappointment after disappointment, and that is one of the reasons why we trade at such a low valuation. But the first positive signs we have will move the stock. People are looking for value now and it's getting harder and harder to find. Enterprise value is actually lower than it was for a good part of 2012.

      But first, we need them to execute on the buyback. This is something that is totally under their control. They can go get help if needed. Look at NVDIA, they are buying back stock hand over fist, and Goldman is doing it for them in an effective and efficient manner. Absolutely NO EXCUSE if they bungle this up.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I will only speak for myself, but I think these numbers are another in a long line of disappointments. For over a year now, management has spoken of growth opportunities and strong business, but as of yet, that has not shown up in the revenue numbers. To be down 4% from the quarter a year ago is a disgrace. And nobody in the industry is talking about anything but a slowdown in the current q4. I remain hopeful that things will improve, but so far the execution is lacking. Management has been successful in generating significant profits and cash flows from the current revenue levels, but they have been unable as of late to improve revenues, and that is disappointing. Having said all that, I still believe the stock is undervalued based on p/e and other metrics. I just hope they execute the buyback quickly and aggressively to take advantage of this weakness.

      • 3 Replies to jayand777
      • If they have cash flow and profits but lack in revenues that means they are having trouble expanding their customer base.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Jay, I have never been one to sugarcoat things, and have sometimes disagreed with other longs on this board. While management has grown the company, I have never viewed this as a growth story so much as a valuation story. My model for FY13 brought me to full year revenues of $665.2, which for all intents and purposes would be flat y-o-y. My EPS projection for the year was in the $1.80 range (vs a current mean estimate by the covering analysts of $1.535). EPS gets tricky because it is difficult for me to estimate changes due to FX, taxes and the effect on income from non-controlling interests, but it looks to me like they still hit my full year revenue number, and should still beat the analysts' estimates on EPS. That means that the valuation story is still valid, in my opinion. I never expected this stock to zoom to $35/share. My expectations have been in the mid-20s range. I am a bit disappointed that they are not performing better at this point, but I still think the valuation story is compelling.

      • jay
        Can't disagree on your take on Oct.'s numbers, BUT, let's see the 4th qrtr play out.
        Even with slowdown, the points made often here on buyback (and possibly div, which I find doubtful)
        lead many here to see Taiwanese step-up on coverage, and bring stock price up, due to low p/e, other metrics, and raised cash from sources, all metioned ad nauseum.
        Yesterday's Himx cc may have been slight indication that China-induced slowdown will affect IMOS' numbers through year-end. I still take positive cues from MU (Up some more today!!)
        Last point, CCalls I sold on 9/27 and 10/1 (for $1 and $1.11) for the March, 22.50's are not budging today @ 40 cents. Maybe some ray of hope that the market's efficiency will hold,

        THOUGH management has got to STEP UP big time on or after Nov. 18th, or many here will wonder what happened to "shareholder friendly". I'm on board for the positive outcome

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • When you have bad news, nobody ever says anything. Just like in 2008 when the board went dark.

18.80-0.25(-1.31%)Oct 27 4:00 PMEDT