MTG On Hold To Test and Accumulate Shares From Weak Holders
for the year, I agree that RDN will outperform MTG by Dec31
but I believe that for the rest of the year, or as of Sept1 or especially about Aug15, MTG will outperform RDN.
I'm expecting the NIW data will be similar for RDN and MTG but MTG will gain more upside (or, depending on your POV, regain losses). And, on earnings Q3, MTG will greatly outperform. I think MTG could be neutral to slightly outperform expectations (since expectations have raised somewhat on NIW) but I believe RDN has potential to either slightly outperform or under perform simply because expectations are higher and the stock has more downside (the same downside that MTG decided to just 'take on the chin' and 'get it over with' at the end of last quarter).
Briefly, YTD and also long-term, I like $RDN... but I'm much more long $MTG up until, and maybe through, Q3 report. I haven't decided yet if I'd hold through earnings announcement yet.